#1 movie predicted correctly: 13 Weeks in a Row
1. Avatar
Seven straight weekends! I’ve put it at a 22 percent dip, actually worse than last weekend. I think Edge of Darkness cuts into it around four percent. Still, it will hit $2b at the box office, and that’s not too shabby, is it?
Estimate: $26.7 million
I have it opening ten percent lower than Taken, per theater. I attribute this partly to competition — Taken opened against two tomato cans, and partly to Mel Gibson himself. There has to be a little reluctance on the part of audiences. Does he still have it?
I’m predicting enough people adopt a cautious posture on this one to doom it to 2nd place, though it could very easily take Friday night (a la Book of Eli).
Estimate: $21.5 million
3. When in Rome
Why? Why do they keep releasing films like this? And don’t give me that “because people see them” argument. That doesn’t make it right. I’m ranking it above Leap Year because people seem to like Kristen Bell and it’s received heavier marketing levels.
Estimate: $10.6 million
4. Legion
The reports out of this one were dismal. Interesting concept, no follow through. Thus, I’m dipping it 52 percent. Word of mouth isn’t going to support it.
Estimate: $8.4 million
That lofty $80m production budget still looms. It will need an international push, but The Road didn’t get one… so why would Eli?
Estimate: $7.6 million
It gains a theater this weekend. That’s right, some theater owner out there said “Tooth Fairy? Give me some of THAT!”
Estimate: $6.7 million
As I’m writing, I haven’t seen an updated theater count on Lovely Bones, so buyer beware.
Estimate: $4.0 million
The sequel has been fast tracked. And at almost $400m worldwide, why not?
Remember when we thought this had a chance to knock off Avatar? That seems like a long time ago now, doesn’t it?
Estimate: $3.7 million
Sundance note: I didn’t really like the film HappyThankYouPleaseMore. However, there was a singer featured named JayMay that was pretty great. If you like acoustic gals, such as Jenny Lewis, then you’ll enjoy her work.
Estimate: $3.6 million
I know we deride Jason Lee for taking the paycheck here. But if someone offered you $5m for a few days work, would you turn it down? Probably not.
Estimate: $3.2 million
Now then, are you worried about my streak? This feels like the weekend it could all go wrong, if Avatar somehow falls to normal bleeds and Edge of Darkness captures the public’s imagination. But will you predict it? And am I too bullish or bearish on When in Rome? Comment early, comment often!
