Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 15 – Jan. 17, 2010

#1 movie predicted correctly: 11 Weeks in a Row

Before we get started I’d like you to take notice of the new Oracle graphic that has now moved Avatar into the fifth slot all-time at the domestic box-office. It actually just missed out on the fourth spot as of the publishing of today’s article as it sits just over $200,000 shy of Shrek 2 at the moment. However, by the end of the weekend it should be #3 all-time, passing Star Wars.

Also note, these predictions are for the three-day weekend, not the four-day. Now let’s get into it.

Avatar has made it pretty easy on me, no? It just keeps going. This will be the fifth weekend in a row for the juggernaut, joining The Sixth Sense, a film that also accomplished the feat over a holiday weekend. Are you already thinking about the last film to win six weekends in row? Why, that would be a little film called Titanic.
Estimate: $37.5 million
I liked it, but I’m not sure the trailers are a clear indication of what this film is. As such, it may have a tough time building strength because the initial audience’s expectations will be confounded. It’s a good film, an interesting film, but probably more intellectual than actioner.
Estimate: $28.5 million
I haven’t seen much in the way of marketing, but I don’t watch many shows in the intended demo. I know it’s seen a fair share of advertising around Rope, so perhaps y’all have some intelligence on this one. Is Lionsgate pushing it hard enough or leaving it for dead?
Estimate: $13.7 million
Hey, what are you doing here? That’s right, Lovely Bones gets up to 2,400 theaters this weekend, long after the buzz has faded. Bad reviews and odd placement probably mean we won’t be talking about this much after this weekend.
Estimate: $12.6 million
The biggest dropper of last weekend, it will only be the second biggest drop of this weekend. Who will be tops on that ignominious list? Read on…
Estimate: $8.2 million
$315m worldwide cume on a budget of $75m. If you run a studio, you’ll take that every day of the week.
Estimate: $7.9 million
It could get a push from The Golden Globes, but not until after Sunday night.
Estimate: $7.2 million
Ding! The biggest drop of the weekend, again following the pattern of 30 Days of Night. A 55 to 57 percent drop is a pretty sure thing here.
Estimate: $6.8 million
Another film that will receive some free publicity from the Hollywood Foreign Press.
Estimate: $5.2 million
Theoretically, Leap Year could snag this spot. But we’ll go with quality.
Estimate: $4.8 million

How say you? Am I too low on Avatar, even only dipping it 25 percent? Will Book of Eli jump up and surprise us? Is my streak in any jeopardy at all? Comment away, your opinion is valued and encouraged.


Marvel and DC