Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 8 – Jan. 10, 2010

#1 movie predicted correctly: 10 Weeks in a Row
The Dark Knight and Return of the King come to mind when you’re talking about movies that have taken four weekends in a row (oh, and that Titanic movie). That’s good company. I’m predicting a 37 percent drop, finally breaking the streak of not dropping double digits.

I should mention The Grinch took four weekends in a row too, but I’m not sure how I feel about that one anymore. It’s been a long time.

Estimate: $42.7 million
My top twelve of the weekend are set to gross $159m, down from last weekend’s $209m. That’s a 24 percent drop. Last year the second weekend in January only dropped two percent. So am I too high? Too low? I suppose I should have saved this portion for the end.
Estimate: $22.2 million
Sherlock stands at $233m worldwide, though it had to have a giant budget. They still need a bigger international push.
Estimate: $19.4 million
This title could go much bigger, because it’s been a full two weekends since people had an opportunity to choose something new. But $6,500 per theater feels about right, if only because of 30 Days of Night‘s number.
Estimate: $19.4 million
A miserable film. But they’ll convince 1.85 out of every 30 Americans to see it.
Estimate: $12.3 million
They’ve cracked the top 1000 all time at the box office. No, I didn’t adjust for inflation.
Estimate: $11.5 million
I’m a little bullish because I think the teens are ready to pounce. I’ve put it at a little over half of a Superbad opening (per theater).
Estimate: $11.2 million
It looks likely to earn 10x its production budget theatrically. That’s not done very often, though The Hangover put up a 13x the production budget.
Estimate: $7.4 million
It seems to be fading on the Oscar talk, buried beneath the box office muscle of Avatar and the hipster cool of Hurt Locker.
Estimate: $5.5 million
Still needs around $200m in box office to feel good about the theatrical run. So no, they aren’t quite there yet.
Estimate: $4.6 million

Finally, a chance for you to pick some new titles, and that’s where the art comes in. Hit me with your Daybreakers, Youth in Revolt, or Leap Year numbers. And of course if you’ve got a notion or two on the biggies I’m ready and waiting.


Marvel and DC