Did an East Coast storm destroy Avatar‘s chance at $80m? Probably. Hard to tell just how many people stayed home due to blizzard-like conditions. Still, not a terrible result, a better per theater average than Up in the Air… even at 3,200 more theaters.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 8 Weeks In A Row
1. Avatar
It also cleared $160m internationally, setting up would could be a trend on this film going forward. My early guess? $775m total worldwide cume. But no number from $700m – $1.1b would surprise me. People are loving the effects, if not the entire story.
Best prediction? Jeremy Baril was early and accurate with a strong $71.8m call. We also had UK box office predictions on board, that’s going the extra mile (or kilometer)!
Result: 73.0 million (My rank: #1, $12.6m off)
A near 50 percent drop here is bad, bad news. Yes, it will rebound a little over Christmas… but they needed word of mouth to be much stronger. Only two films fell harder in the top ten, and that $105m production budget now seems daunting.
Result: 12.2 million (My rank: #2, $1.8m off)
The Blind Side fell the least of the wide releases, nearly $165m domestically. It only needs another $13m to crack the top ten of 2009 (domestically) — seems like a sure thing.
Result: 10.0 million (My rank: #3, $2.1m off)
Even underrating Did You Hear About the Morgans? was giving it too much credit. JM and Roger both had nice calls here, most of the rest of us were in double digits.
Could it be that people are sick of formulaic rom-coms? No, probably not. It’s more likely that it’s just not the right time of the year for this sort of film.
Result: 7.0 million (My rank: #4, $3.9m off)
New Moon is $3m away from passing The Hangover for fourth place domestically this year. Was it Paramount that passed on this franchise? You think Summit sent them a Christmas card? Oddly enough, MTV was developing the film for Paramount before they sent it packing — and they’ve spent every day since on their movie blog hyping the vampire film.
Result: 4.3 million (My rank: #8, $.7m off)
6. Invictus
The budget was only $60m… but it sure has struggled so far. Looks like it’s too late to turn things around too.
Result: 4.1 million (My rank: #5, $1.0m off)
With the international numbers in on Christmas Carol it’s time to own up to this one breaking a trend I’d been touting (Christmas movies doing markedly better domestically). Christmas Carol didn’t have the overall appeal Disney needed, but it wasn’t because it had no chance overseas. Mea Culpa.
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #7, $0.8m off)
Nailed the number. But Brothers and 2012 faltering left my placement off.
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #10, Dead On)
9. Brothers
Has anyone seen the original on this title? Was that one better? I just found this one to be off tonally, but that doesn’t mean the source material wasn’t strong. Educate us!
Result: 2.6 million (My rank: #9, $0.6m off)
10. Old Dogs
Old Dogs needs about $50m to feel good about profitability. Are you international folks going to oblige?
Result: 2.2 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
Next week is awesome, prediction-wise. Probably the most difficult weekend to call we’ve seen in quite some time. I’ve already busted out my spreadsheets, but I’ll go official with it on Thursday. Until then, hit us up with your thoughts on Avatar, snowstorms, and whatever else is on your mind.
