Box-Office Oracle: Dec. 11 – Dec. 13, 2009

The second weekend in December can go either way. Last year the top twelve films made $82m. But in 2007 I Am Legend cleared $77m all by itself. Into that fray steps The Princess and the Frog, Disney’s 2-D New Orleans animation. Predictions vary wildly on this title, from $25m on other sites to $57m in the comments section last weekend. But Lilo and Stitch opened at $35m in 2002. So I’m putting it slightly below there, even with inflation. I just don’t see the demand out there for this title.

Estimate: $34.3 million

It’s only getting 2,125 theaters, a clear indication Warner Bros. doesn’t quite know what to do with it. Is it an Oscar film? Or a sports movie? An inspirational tale? It will still have the second best per theater average, it just doesn’t have enough buzz or theaters to mount a serious charge.

Estimate: $12.8 million

I will put it at a 45 percent dip, slightly better than last weekend’s 50 percent drop. $133m and counting on a production budget of $29m. They’ll take it.

Estimate: $11.5 million

With $580m it’s in the top five of worldwide box-office this year, only 2012, Harry Potter 6, Ice Age 3, and Transformers 2 have more. It doesn’t look like it can rise any higher though.

Estimate: $6.1 million

I think you’d have more luck with a World War I movie right now. People simply aren’t interested, and this was oddly marketed to boot.

Estimate: $4.8 million

We had a nice discussion about the international prospects of Christmas movies on the comments last Sunday, it remains to be seen if this Christmas Carol can escape the “domestic far surpassing international” trend previous holiday films have adhered to.

Estimate: $3.8 million

I never got around to seeing it. How about y’all? Alert commenter Joel was nice enough to let me know Old Dogs is a baddie, saving me two hours of my life. Much obliged.

Estimate: $3.4 million

I was looking into a theory that PG was on the run… but, nope, four of the top ten have been PG the past two years. In fact, 2007 was a more “adult” year, with seven of the top ten box-office titles being rated PG-13 and above.

Estimate: $2.9 million

$150m domestically, $520m internationally. Staggering, no? Plus, Sony distributes internationally like a pro, so the reported $100m paid to Roland Emmerich wasn’t a waste.

Estimate: $2.8 million

This would have been a perfect weekend for Up in the Air to go wide. Or Lovely Bones. Either could have picked off the top slot. Instead, we’re left with a bottom five that just looks sad.

Estimate: $2.2 million