Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 27 – Nov. 29, 2009

#1 movie predicted correctly: 4 Weeks in a Row
Twilight fell 62 percent. I’ve got this version falling 57.5 percent, an improvement, but still highly frontloaded. New Moon is being greatly helped this weekend by the overall lack of competition.
Estimate: $61.0 million
The consensus here seems to be “why?” I’ll tell you why. Because it worked once before (Wild Hogs), so they figure it will work again. If this cracks $30m you should pretty much prepare yourself for Bold Clogs.
Estimate: $23.0 million
It had a very quiet weekend, even though it should have been a major storyline because it outperformed every prediction. After this weekend it should be near the $60m mark domestically, and as the production budget was only $29m they are looking pretty solid here.
Estimate: $19.1 million
4. 2012
$461m worldwide cume, Sony can thank the international audiences for saving their bacon.
Estimate: $12.0 million
Odd timing. Does Thanksgiving weekend really lend itself to extreme violence and ninjas? It’s like they’ve attended my family gatherings!
Estimate: $11.3 million
If I could implore you to see one film it would be this one. Unless you hate Wes Anderson. Then I suppose you’re off the hook. But everyone else really needs to see it, it’s quite good. I’ll probably catch it again on Friday with Brad.
Estimate: $10.4 million
I can’t figure out why they haven’t taken this wide yet. Was this only about grabbing an Oscar nom and forsaking the theatrical run?
Estimate: $7.6 million
They are going to need a huge international take for this not to be considered a financial disaster.
Estimate: $6.2 million
Didn’t have the advertising budget to mount anything nearing a serious run. It’s always interesting to see what Hollwyood produces… and then immediately discards.
Estimate: $5.9 million
The Road is only getting 88 theaters. And it’s entirely bleak. But so many of the bottom feeders lost substantial theater counts that it feels like this one will slip into the tenth slot.
Estimate: $1.2 million

How say you? Will New Moon actually bleed faster than Twilight? Any theories on why Precious isn’t spreading faster? And what do you make of Old Dogs? I’m off to eat something with gravy on it, but thanks for reading and I hope you’ll lend me your insight.