Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 20 – Nov. 22, 2009

ON
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row
Brad and I had one of our rare movie disagreements over this title, and it’s most likely because I read the book while he stopped after Twilight. I thought it was a solid adaptation, he didn’t dig it. It’s okay, we’re still pals.

As for the box office call here, I’m going above almost everyone I’ve seen predictions from, but it’s an extremely tricky film to project. Before I break it down, please note that the late Thursday night screenings will count towards this number.

Now then, sequels almost always do 30 to 40 percent better as awareness spreads once the movie hits home video. But this isn’t a normal sequel, because part of the audience is growing up… and out of Twilight. Add in that this could be the most front-loaded movie in box office history, as teen girls are NOT going to wait until Sunday to see this. It’s all going to come on Thursday and Friday.

So what my big number comes down to is this: I think fans will see it twice. Or three times. I think it’s exactly what the Twi-hards are looking for this weekend, and I think they’ll like it much more than Twilight. At least I did. However, I do reserve the right to be $40m off because when the momentum on this franchise goes south, it’s gonna happen too quickly for anyone to predict.

Estimate: $114.8 million
2. 2012
I can’t ding it the approved 58 percent Day After Tomorrow went down. I’m only going to bleed it 53 percent because it’s effective New Moon counter-programming.
Estimate: $30.7 million
I’m bullish on this title. Once families realize it’s not terrible it will build strength.
Estimate: $18.6 million
It’s getting another 500 theaters or so this weekend, but it can’t continue at the $30k per screen average. It’s just not possible. At some point it has to slow down to normal “per theater” numbers.
Estimate: $14.7 million
They need about another half a billion in box office receipts to feel good about it making cash. So no, not an ideal place to be.
Estimate: $14.1 million
Awareness on this title must be zilch. I haven’t seen one ad. I know they aren’t shooting for my demo, but I don’t even think I’ve seen a poster or a blog post anywhere either. No one is mentioning it, I never saw a trailer, and I think this ends up being ignored this weekend.
Estimate: $9.8 million
If you’re predicting in the comments you can stop after ranking six films if you like. Clearly the rest of the top ten will not be seen by many folks.
Estimate: $3.0 million
Has anyone heard about international distribution for this title? I would think that’s an easy $50m based on the performance here in the states.
Estimate: $2.0 million
My bottom three films are within $100k of each other. A recipe for inaccuracy.
Estimate: $1.9 million
The number one “concert” film of all time, just passing Miley’s Best of Bost Worlds. Not a huge genre though.
Estimate: $1.9 million

How say you? Throw out a New Moon number and see if it sticks. Or call me out on my Blind Side feelings. Perhaps tell me why 2012 is going to sink like stone or go to bat for Precious making the top three again. You know the drill, learn us up!