Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 13 – Nov. 15, 2009

#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
1. 2012
10,000 B.C. made over $10,000 per theater back in 2008. 2012 will do much better than that, I’m bringing it in at $15,000 per this weekend. There’s no real competition, this is a better film, and people are still starved for a hit. Fun fact about 10,000 B.C.: It made $95m domestically, but a whomping $175m internationally. This one will be much more balanced.
Estimate: $51.1 million
It won’t face any genre troubles until next weekend. Still, knocking it only 45 percent this weekend feels too kind.
Estimate: $16.5 million
Did you guys watch this one? I don’t really know what to do with it, there’s not a ton of precedent on a title like this.
Estimate: $7.2 million
Losing a few theaters this weekend, down to near 3,000. Eight films within $3m dollars of each other, could turn into a nightmare weekend for my big board. This is It has banked internationally to crack the $200m worldwide cume mark. So it looks like my early fears were misplaced, Sony wins again.
Estimate: $6.9 million
It will fall the most of any film this weekend, unless you count Precious having to come down from $100k per theater. By the way, did you know Universal reached a settlement with a handful of Alaska newspapers for using fabricated “news archives” to promote this movie? Only cost them $20,000 and a $2,500 scholarship contribution, but it’s an interesting tidbit.
Estimate: $5.5 million
Speak of the devil, it’s a nice set of circumstances for Precious this weekend. Nothing is being released, it’s gaining theaters, and it’s got maximum buzz coming off last weekend. If it cracks the top five you should prepare yourself for numerous newspapers running articles on Tuesday.
Estimate: $5.4 million
Do you want to see the sequel? It has crossed the $100m mark and is being called the “most profitable” film in history. Which is true if you ignore things like inflation and marketing budgets. I do not ignore those things.
Estimate: $4.6 million
It only fell five percent last weekend, which has gotta be some kind of modern fifth week record.
Estimate: $4.6 million
Only 882 theaters. That’s not enough, and it’s got to make $5,000 per theater to even make it to the ninth slot. Odd, because it’s a fairly entertaining little movie.
Estimate: $4.4 million
Go see The Box this weekend. Seriously, it’s an interesting movie. I don’t know why we’ve become so anti-innovation in our tastes these days, anything remotely different simply isn’t getting any marketing or buzz.
Estimate: $4.0 million

How say you? Is my $51m call too high or too low? One of these days I’ve got to nail it, right? Lay it on me.