At this point I think it’s fair to say it’s been a rough few months. The last film to make $100m domestically was released almost two months ago, and even the films that make a few bucks, like Christmas Carol, have fairly obvious flaws. What are we left with for 2009? Hoping and praying that 2012, Avatar, and Sherlock Holmes can help us finish the year strong.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
Brad mentioned the massive Christmas Carol budget (which we’ve heard everything from $150-185m), and $31m isn’t going to get it done. $31m translates to around $110m-$120m in domestic cume and something along the lines of Lemony Snicket’s $210m worldwide cume. That number means they would lose a small fortune on a technology heavy (but story light) 3-D tale.
Result: 31.0 million (My rank: #1, $13.2m off)
This is It held up well once they stopped with the hype machine. Issuing a press release every time a show sells out isn’t the way to build buzz, it’s only a way to keep people away on opening weekend.
Result: 14.0 million (My rank: #5, $2.2m off)
I think word of mouth got them after Friday. There wasn’t much in the way of narrative here, only a few laughs due to the excellence of the acting talent assembled.
Result: 13.3 million (My rank: #2, $3.5m off)
For the record, JM had the best call at the top, sandbagging Christmas Carol to the tune of $33.8m. Not bad. None of us had This is It finishing second, and only Shane-o-Mac had Men Who Stare at Goats placed correctly in the third slot.
As for Fourth Kind, I win the contest. It was what we thought it was.
Result: 12.5 million (My rank: #4, $0.1m off)
I think we’ve finally reached saturation on Paranormal Activity, 13 million tickets (give or take) were purchased, and it will end up as at least the third highest grossing horror film in history, knocking off The Grudge, The Haunting, and Exorcism of Emily Rose in the process.
Result: 8.6 million (My rank: #5, $3.2m off)
6. The Box
I really wish they would have screened this earlier. I actually ended up liking it quite a bit. The other site I write for was kind enough to run my review. Long story short, I want people to see it. And then I want to talk about what it means, because it’s too confusing and disjointed to see without exchanging theories.
Result: 7.8 million (My rank: #3, $5.4m off)
This held up really well. Must have been the complete lack of genre competition?
Result: 6.4 million (My rank: #7, $3.1m off)
The biggest Overture release ever! Pop the bubbly.
Result: 6.1 million (My rank: #7, $2.1m off)
Why is so much technology and cash being thrown at PG films? Because the studio needs everyone to see them when they burn through $100m in production.
Result: 4.2 million (My rank: #9, $1.4m off)
10. Astro Boy
Summit has to be licking their wounds. They’re gonna need a nice New Moon run to salvage the year… but the nice part for them is that they’ll likely get it.
Result: 2.5 million (My rank: #, $m off)
How say you? Any trends stick out? Wanna talk about Precious clearing $100k per theater? Did you catch any of the new releases and want to share your rooting interest? Comment away, I read ’em all.