Oscar Update: ‘Up In the Air,’ ‘The Road,’ ‘A Serious Man’ and Robert Duvall?

After the Telluride Film Festival came to a close on September 7, I began thinking about putting together a new Oscar update, but all there was to talk about was the initial hype surrounding Jason Reitman’s Up In the Air and the reactions to John Hillcoat’s The Road, which also debuted at the Venice Film Festival before both films made the trip north to the Toronto Film Festival, which is what I was waiting for to see where things settled following the early storm of raves. It’s been a busy couple of weeks of festivals and while talk is loud for Up In the Air and its position as a serious contender is assured, where it will fall is still undecided (I came dangerously close to saying “up in the air”).

Recently I saw a comment online with someone referring to the 2009 awards season saying it felt more like a No Country for Old Men year than a Slumdog Millionaire year. However, like Slumdog Millionaire, Up In the Air has so far enjoyed the exact same kind of press coverage. Both films debuted at Telluride and Toronto within days of each other and both earned the same kind of open-armed fanfare at every turn.

Stephen Farber at The Hollywood Reporter continues in the same fashion saying the film boasts “one of George Clooney’s strongest performances [and] seems like a surefire awards contender.” He adds, “The buzz will attract a sizable audience, even though some viewers might be startled by the uncompromising finale.”

Kris Tapley at In Contention is perhaps one of the most head over heels bloggers in support of the film, and he (like others I have read) seems to have found a personal connection to the film turning in a lengthy four-star review, which concludes by saying, “Perhaps the film settled for me at the right time in my life, a crossroads of understanding the necessity to plunge into life, to grow up, to recognize the power of our relationships with people, etc. But as a friend reminded, everyone is at this crossroads, regardless of age.”

Finally, perhaps one of the most shocking reviews comes from the often acerbic Jeffrey Wells who also loved the film and says it’s even better than his 2009 go to favorite The Hurt Locker. Wells writes, “I’ve just seen the most eloquent, affecting and altogether best film of 2009…so far… Up In the Air really has it all — recognizable human-scale truth, clarity, smart comfort, the right degree of restraint (i.e., knowing how not to push it), and — this got me more than anything else — a penetrating, almost unnerving sense of quiet.”

I love Wells’ taste in films so his opinion is the one that really has me personally interested in seeing this film, but outside of my wants and desires we now have to look at see where this fits into the Oscar race.

First for the actors, I see Clooney taking a major leap in the race and Farmiga is firmly now on the map. I did see a couple of Oscar bloggers mention Anna Kendrick, but she’s young and I think the Academy is going to look more toward Farmiga and it seems Paramount may attempt to turn heads that way, especially considering the first clip released centers specifically on Farmiga and Clooney. (You can watch that clip directly to the right.)

Next, it would seem Reitman is a definite contender for a director nod, and many are saying he has now won folks over with three films in a row (Thank You for Smoking and Juno). When people start talking like that it means they are thinking it’s about time someone got their due. Could it be Reitman’s turn? I’m sure we will also be anticipating his name in the adapted screenplay department as well.

As for Best Picture, this is where this year may actually become more of a No Country for Old Men kind of year, that is if the competition coming up can fare better than did the 2008 contenders with The Reader, Benjamin Button, Doubt, Gran Torino and Revolutionary Road serving as 2008’s end of year deliveries. While two of those films ended up Best Picture nominees, one of them was despised for its inclusion and the other four films weren’t overwhelming favorites once everyone’s eyeballs had taken them in. Up In the Air is off to a great start, but it’s competition looks stiff.

To start it off you have the obvious with Clint Eastwood’s Invictus and Rob Marshall’s Nine. By the way, if you heard rumors Nine was moving into Spring 2010, you can go ahead and forget them, I contacted the Weinstein Co. and there’s no truth in it.

An Education — to me — is slowly beginning to look like one of the contenders for the 6-10 slots (I have it at #4 right now), which is where I think Amelia will ultimately end up and perhaps The Road, which I will talk about more in a second. Peter Jackson’s The Lovely Bones is impossible to predict at the moment since that film is going to be walking a delicate line and a couple of other wild cards in my eyes include James Cameron’s Avatar and Spike Jonze’s Where the Wild Things Are. I see a lot of potential for Cameron’s film and Jonze’s film is going to be a serious test as I think the online masses are going to fall head-over-heels for it, but I am wondering what the other half is going to say — the half that doesn’t fall back on words such as “beautiful” and “glorious” as their only means of describing a film that doesn’t include superheroes.

One that has me scratching my head as to where it will end up is Michael Moore’s Capitalism: A Love Story. Will he be able to get his latest doc a Best Picture nom when he couldn’t get Fahrenheit 9/11 one? I’m seeing it this week and can’t wait to see how it stacks up. The other curious release is Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life, which was picked up by Apparition and expected to hit theaters in 2009 for an awards run but not a word has been said yet. And don’t forget Up and The Hurt Locker.

Todd McCarthy’s review of A Serious Man at Variety uses a lot of words, but really says nothing. Kirk Honeycutt at The Hollywood Reporter joins McCarthy in debating box-office and giving away the story but says very little when it comes to a concise opinion of the film’s quality.

Jeff Wells is much quicker to the point saying:

Joel and Ethan Coen’s A Serious Man is a brilliant LQTM black comedy that out-misanthropes Woody Allen by a country mile and positively seethes with contempt for complacent religious culture (in this case ’60s era Minnesota Judaism). I was knocked flat in the best way imaginable and have put it right at the top of my Coen-best list. God, it’s such a pleasure to take in something this acidic and well-scalpeled. The Coens are fearless at this kind of artful diamond-cutting.

If that sounds like he’s taking it too far, Kris Tapley at In Contention joins in the praise in much the same way saying, “In my view, it is the finest Coen film since Fargo and, perhaps, since Barton Fink. It is without question the siblings’ most personal film to date, an exploration of the ‘What does it all mean?’ thoughts that plague each of us on a daily basis.”

Want more? Ed Douglas at Coming Soon isn’t as in love with it. The folks at Twitch tossed up a positive review, as did Monika Bartyzel at Cinematical and Scott Feinberg at And the Winner Is, but The Auteurs weren’t entirely convinced saying, “[We aren’t saying] A Serious Man is not supremely entertaining, very funny, or strikingly composed — like Haneke, the Coens sure know how to make movies — but the expressive element of the movie is entirely missing.”

For even more with A Serious Man check out the photo spread at The New York Times. Also, Jeff Wells has posted a 13 minute audio interview with the brothers.

So what does all this add up to? Well, Up In the Air continues to move up my Best Picture prediction charts and A Serious Man and The Road are both making their debut as is Where the Wild Things Are, if not merely as a dark horse ten spot contender.

The Road, it turns out, has been met with some seriously interesting opinions, many of which referring to it as “bleak” and using that word as a way to award it or downplay it, but considering that is the point it may come down to your taste in movies and the atmosphere they provide. One thing’s for certain, I have seen only one truly negative review of the film and I continue to hear Viggo Mortensen’s name mentioned as a possible contender and then there seems to be a new movement for Robert Duvall.

John Foote at In Contention is the first to bring it all up as he mentions the buzz spreading for Duvall for not only what is said to be a small, but transformative performance in The Road, but also a film called Get Low, directed by Aaron Schneider. Foote writes:

As I interviewed Duvall in the Park Hyatt Hotel, there was a distribution deal taking place downstairs so there is a very good chance the film will be seen this fall. If so, the landscape of the Best Actor race has just changed. I think Duvall has to be considered the frontrunner for this miraculous performance. Again, the man proves he is perhaps our greatest actor, and in the words of the great acting guru Sanford Meisner, has been for a very long time.

Tapley at In Contention also weighs in, Betsy Sharkey has an interesting story about the casting of Bill Murray in the film at The Los Angeles Times and at The Hollywood Reporter, Kirk Honeycutt reviews the film, but isn’t high enough on Duvall to go as far as the In Contention boys saying only, “Duvall is his cantankerous best as the old man who turns out to be more scared than scary,” and saying the film “comes briefly to life but lacks a dramatic conclusion.”

I attached a clip from Get Low just to the right and a couple images from the film right here. The film centers on a Tennessee hermit named Felix Bush (Duvall) who decides to throw his own funeral party while he’s still alive and also stars Lucas Black and Sissy Spacek.

Grant Heslov’s The Men Who Stare at Goats also began screening at the festivals, but to no real acclaim as much as just appreciative clapping. Jane Campion’s Bright Star is starting to get mixed reviews, An Education is staying alive, Precious remains in the hunt and after seeing The Informant! Matt Damon is going to slip a couple more notches on my Best Actor predictions and the film will drop completely off my Best Picture predictions.

Now, for one final note and perhaps one of the silliest quotes I read these past few weeks despite all the hyperbole for Up In the Air, comes from none other than Rolling Stone’s Peter Travers whom has seen 40 minutes of James Cameron’s Avatar and Rolling Stone recaps a video message (watch here) from Travers:

With the Academy Awards’ Best Picture category expanded from five films to 10, James Cameron’s Avatar, the Titanic director’s first film since, well, Titanic, seems like a lock for a nod. The less-than-impressive teaser trailer already has the movie-loving message boards worried, but Travers insists that after seeing 40 minutes of the “spectacular” 3D footage, it’s Cameron’s Best Picture category to lose. Also in the Oscar hunt are Jason Reitman’s Up in the Air, which might net George Clooney a Best Actor trophy, and the musical Nine, which stars Daniel Day Lewis and is partly based on Federico Fellini’s 8 1/2.

I don’t really know what to say, but someone who has been doing this as long as Travers should realize seeing 40 minutes of a potential three-hour movie means nothing. There have been a lot of curious articles surrounding Avatar to this point and all of them involve some journalist getting ecstatic over the film after seeing a mere preview. The same kind of preview I saw at Comic Con (which was 26 minutes) and the same kind of preview audiences saw on “Avatar Day”. However, Travers is the only one talking about the film in such terms so I guess he will either look like a genius or his ravings will be soon forgotten. Also, if you’re interested he recently took to cursing the name of Paramount for moving Martin Scorsese’s Shutter Island out of awards contention. You can get that one here.

So there, I hope that was enough for you to take in as it was certainly a lot to write. You can check out all my latest Oscar Predictions by visiting The Contenders or clicking on any one of the following links to get started. Each opens in a new window so just close the window to return to this post.

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