Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 6 – Mar. 8, 2009

#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
This is a rough weekend to predict. All kinds of opposing data in the air. On one hand, there is nothing else out for people to see. 300‘s March opening weekend record came against Wild Hogs, Ghost Rider and Zodiac in its comp-set. What is Watchmen facing? Nothing that will make even $10m. So the money has to go somewhere. Unless the economy factors in? And can Watchmen catch Matrix Reloaded‘s $91.7m record for an R-Rated film?

Here’s a bit more. Dark Knight made $36k per screen. My number only calls for $24.5 per. Watchmen also will have IMAX dollars rolling in, though 300 did too. Still, I predict the March record falls while the R-rated sticks. And I predict less than stellar word-of-mouth for next weekend. Buyer beware: I could be off by $20 or $30 million. Only time will tell.

Estimate: $88.5 million
And then there was everything else. Seriously, can I just predict Watchmen and call it a day?
Estimate: $7.7 million
Will the region two DVD hurt it at all? Probably not on the download side, those guys get it the first day. But perhaps a few hundred thousand people have region 2 players. So we’ll knock it down 30%.
Estimate: $6.7 million
This has been out 16 weeks. Nine of those in the top ten. Looks like Fox Searchlight has perfected the art of the slow burn.
Estimate: $5.9 million
I think we can all agree on one thing around here: Screw Jonas Brothers 3-D. That is all.
Estimate: $5.5 million
Seven weeks in a row in the top ten. It’s actually the 62nd highest PG film of all time. And it’s still the number one film of 2009 at $129m, even Watchmen won’t catch if for a few weeks. You proud of yourself America?
Estimate: $4.5 million
It sort of makes you wonder why studios don’t compete January through March. Or perhaps it’s all still strike fall-out.
Estimate: $3.7 million
$52m and going strong! No, only kidding. It’s gasping around like a trampled frog.
Estimate: $3.2 million
If you can get 400,000 people to buy a ticket this weekend you can have a top ten film. That’s like a sort of popular YouTube video. Should be doable, right?
Estimate: $2.6 million
One thing I feel great about is that Street Fighter probably won’t make the top ten. Next time send us a real movie, fellas. It’s the very least you could do.
Estimate: $2.6 million


Marvel and DC