NOTE: I wanted to let you know you can also follow my predictions over at the Los Angeles Times in their Buzzmeter section as I join a large crew of Oscar prognosticators in predicting this year’s Oscar nominees. Now, to the predictions…
Well, I hope you all had a Happy Holidays and were able to get through the snow and into the theaters, at least here in the States I believe there was a point that 50% of the country was covered in snow, which I am sure made it tough for some to justify driving to the cinema. Either way, all of the major contenders have hit theaters at this point with the December 31 release of Defiance and Good marking the final installments for 2008, but neither of them are vying too hard for any of the top categories outside of what I hope will be a score nomination for James Newton Howard for Defiance and some other technical rumblings as well.
As it stands I believe I have seen everything making a serious bid for an Oscar nomination with Last Chance Harvey starring Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson as the lone holdout, but I don’t think that will matter much.
Since my last prediction piece we have seen the Screen Actors Guild Award nominations, additional film critic awards (Chicago and Four Others) as well as a group of nine top tens from a variety of top critics from around the web. Suffice to say, I think we have a lot to go on as we are now less than a month away from the Oscar nomination announcement, at which point we will have to begin predicting the winners. What fun…
After the SAG noms it looks like Melissa Leo and Angelina Jolie are going to continue to contend for a spot on the Best Actress list, which is easily the hardest group to predict. The Supporting Actor category has also gotten harder as what I once thought was a sure thing in Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road has now turned into anything but a sure thing. Both Brad Pitt and Richard Jenkins made the SAG list for Best Actor, which makes me wonder if one of Leonardo DiCaprio’s best performances ever will truly be snubbed and I can’t help but wonder if Kate Winslet will end up being a double nominee with Best Actress in Revolutionary Road and Supporting Actress in The Reader. If I were voting I would definitely say yes.
As for the almighty Best Picture category we have the likes of Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and Slumdog Millionaire as what appear to be locks for everyone at this point with that fifth spot left wide open. I could easily see Revolutionary Road sliding in and taking it, but I think it is reserved for The Dark Knight. However, a passionate group of readers weighed in on my article headlined “POLL: WALL•E or The Dark Knight – Which One has the Best Chance at an Oscar Nomination?” and after 795 votes The Dark Knight sits as a 79% favorite in terms of the poll with 70 comments added to the mix as well, many VERY passionate about WALL•E. The way I see it, should WALL•E or The Dark Knight get that fifth spot I will be happy as it symbolizes a minor shake up and will certainly help the ratings.
Now… for the predictions… click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
The 81st Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater. You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my “The Contenders” section right here.