My prediction of Will Smith over Jim Carrey didn’t come to fruition. My heart was in the right place… but my head clearly wasn’t. I will mention that Seven Pounds beat Yes Man in per theater dollars. Still, the real story of the weekend is how big the box office is tanking overall. In 2007 three weekends in December were over $150m (combined top twelve). This year not one weekend has even hit $83m. Where has all the money gone? Is the problem the economy? Or the movies? Let’s break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
1. Yes Man
This is clearly below studio hopes, the only question now is how long this title can hold out. But I can’t think of a math where this hits $100m domestically.
Result: 18.1 million (My rank: #2, $7.6m off)
2. Seven Pounds
Yikes. Did you know five new films get new releases on Thursday? Bedtime Stories, Marley and Me, Benjamin Button, Valkyrie, and The Spirit. Plus Doubt expands by 1000 theaters. So if people aren’t seeing any movies now… what’s going to happen to those titles?
Result: 16.0 million (My rank: #1, $10.8m off)
No budget has been released. But as it was a Universal project I’m gonna go out on a limb and say it cost at least $35m. Which means this one is already in a mess of trouble in terms of profitability.
Result: 10.5 million (My rank: #3, $4.7m off)
It dropped 67%. I don’t even have a punchline for that – it’s too sad. It’s like looking in your stocking and getting set on fire instead of coal.
Result: 10.1 million (My rank: #4, $4.2m off)
Three for the last three! Four Christmases has cracked $100m domestically now, so good news there. Sadly the DVD won’t sell and the budget was $85m. So… bad news on that front.
Result: 7.7 million (My rank: #5, $1.4m off)
6. Twilight
Summit has to be happy. And even if the next one is rushed and not good, they can count on at least the $200m worldwide they made this time. It’s a nice position to be in, as long as they get New Moon out quick.
Result: 5.2 million (My rank: #9, $2.6m off)
7. Bolt
I had everything overrated this weekend. I wrongly assumed people would see bad stuff simply because it was released. My bad.
Result: 4.2 million (My rank: #6, $1.1m off)
It needs more theaters. It finished 2nd in the per theater average! Of course, that could be because people who wanted too see it did, and more theaters would just water down the average. Tough call.
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #7, $1.8m off)
It’s at $528m worldwide. Budget was $200m. Gonna sell a mess of DVDs though. So I think Sony has to be smiling.
Result: 2.1 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
So, here’s your question for this edition – who you like next weekend? Gonna go kid movie with Marley or Bedtime Stories? They’ve got 3000 theaters so it wouldn’t be a bad call (even though Marley looks like a punch to the face). Or perhaps Oscar contender Benjamin Button? I don’t see Valkyrie or The Spirit making any money, but I’m willing to listen if you do. Comment away! It’s a free internet (mostly).
