'Twilight' Finishes Friday with $33 Million with 'Bolt' and Bond Battling for Second

Steve Mason has updated his Fantasy Moguls early Friday estimates and after Twilight‘s reported $7.5 million take thanks to midnight screenings the estimate for the teen-vamp flick bumped to $33 million, and impressive opening to be sure, but how big will the drop be from Friday to Saturday?

No matter how you look at it, should the $33 million stick and not drop too far it will actually mean Twilight will move ever so slightly ahead of current 16th place opening record holder Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone ($32.3 million). The three-day weekend total is a bit more difficult to predict. Many have already said (taking Friday expectations into account) Twilight is expected to hit in the high $50 million range with a chance at $60 million. Mason at Fantasy Moguls is typically quick to inflate numbers after a big opening day and is predicting an unfathomable $70.58 million finish. I guess, with those numbers to consider, we can at least say that anything south of $55 million or so means word of mouth on the flick, even amongst the vocal fan base wasn’t too good, but if it reaches that $70+ million mark Summit may have an even larger hit on their hands than they expected. Considering Twilight was a film Paramount Pictures put into turnaround I am sure there are a few execs over there banging their heads on the wall as they now realize they didn’t even have to try with Twilight and they would have doubled their money. Whowouldathunk?

Battling for second place will be Disney’s new animated feature Bolt as it squares off with James Bond in Quantum Of Solace in its second weekend. Quantum edged out the animated pooch by $1.6 million on Friday, pulling in $8.7 million to Bolt‘s $7.1. Mason is assuming Bolt will have a strong weekend with the kiddies and ultimately leap frog into second, but both are still expected to finish in the $26-28 million range for the weekend.

I can’t help but wonder what Disney thinks of such a result from Bolt. Only two weeks ago DreamWorks unleashed Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa to the tune of $63 million and after this weekend it is expected to finish with over $135 million as it adds another $16 million to its total. Bolt follows up previous Disney computer animated efforts sans Pixar such as 2005’s Chicken Little which made $135 million on a reported $150 million budget and then 2007’s Meet the Robinsons, which earned a meager $97 million. Disney certainly has a distinct animated style when it comes to all three of these films and I am wondering if it is the look audiences aren’t keying on as much as they are animated films from other studios or what exactly. Don’t get me wrong, Bolt will be a successful feature, but Disney is having trouble propelling a CG animated feature into the stratosphere without the aid of Pixar.

The rest of the weekend was old hat. Rounding out the top five is Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa with $3.75 on Friday and Role Models with $2.4.

If you are looking for a slightly smaller box-office story keep an eye on Zack and Miri Make a Porno as it looks to add an additional $2 million to its total after this weekend bringing its cume to $29.7 million, which is less than $1 million away from Kevin Smith’s current highest grossing film, Dogma at $30.6 million. Of course Zack and Miri was made for $24 million and Dogma only $10 million, but a win is a win… Right?

Finally, as I watched The Dark Knight on Blu-ray tonight (yes, I feel lucky) I am reminded of that ever elusive $1 billion worldwide number and it appears the numbers at Box-Office Mojo have been jumping up and down a bit. Unless I am mistaken it was less than $3 million away a few days ago, but as of tonight it sits at $995,125,841 in worldwide receipts. Will it make it to $1 billion? It’s still in 345 theaters here in the States this weekend and I would assume just as many next weekend. It will most certainly hit the number after a re-release in early 2009, but with the December 9 DVD and Blu-ray release date around the corner we might not see it hit that number until the new year.

Here are the complete early Friday estimates from Fantasy Moguls. Stay tuned, I will be back on Sunday with a complete wrap-up as Laremy is taking the weekend off.