It was a dismal box office weekend for a couple of reasons. First off, that Friday Halloween hurt Friday’s numbers. Plus we only had two new wide releases. Add to that the fact that HSM3 and Saw V were already likely to face huge dips in their second weekends and you have the full picture. I guess I should throw something in about people losing their homes/jobs too. That couldn’t have helped.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
From $42m to $15m. Mercy. But with a real Friday night it probably would have made $20m or so and not looked so awful. Still, it sucks to see this repeat.
Result: 15.0 million (My rank: #2, $3.9m off)
I will take the bullet for overrating this. That’s on me. But Steve Mason’s $6.9m number, which was Friday night’s box office take times three was completely silly. Once I saw Friday night’s numbers I saw my error, all you had to do was look back to 2003 to see the pattern. Mason made the call after seeing Friday’s numbers. So there are enough bullets to go around here.
Result: 10.6 million (My rank: #1, $11.8m off)
3. Saw 5
Good pick, right? Thanks. I appreciate the support.
Result: 10.1 million (My rank: #3, $1.1m off)
4. Changeling
If I were in charge of the world’s box office stories I would make this the story because this number shocked me more than Miri. Evidently Jolie has a bigger fanbase than I originally thought. Yes, I know people like to look at pictures of her and I know she does well in action films. But this was a different beast. A different and boring beast. So I figured folks would stay away.
Result: 9.4 million (My rank: #5, $2.9m off)
I think they have to feel pretty good about this number given they spent nothing on production or advertising. We should all do so well with such handicaps.
Result: 6.0 million (My rank: #4, $.6m off)
Back on track! No, not really. Honestly I’m still smarting from not factoring in the Friday night factor. My only solace is that everyone else whiffed too.
Result: 4.7 million (My rank: #6, $0.6m off)
Oh, a programming note. The reason Oracle has been coming late on Sunday is that my precious Fins play football right when the estimates are released. For 16 weeks a year my priorities are all out of whack. Luckily it’s hard for me to get fired because I’m cheap.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #8, $.4m off)
8. Max Payne
Didn’t even have it ranked. You can’t hold that against me – this film is putrid.
Result: 3.7 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
9. Eagle Eye
Back on track! See, if you keep saying it eventually it’s true. I do want to mention that Kevin Smith’s second place finish was his highest directorial opening ever. The bad news is I don’t see the box office tea leaves lining up so favorably again. He had Rogen, Banks, Porn… and he was against nothing. Good thing for him he rules on DVD.
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #9, $0.4m off)
10. Pride and Glory
So I caught that Bond film on Thursday. Very good film, worth the $8. That’s an Oracle bonus for ya.
Result: 3.2 million (My rank: #10, $0.2m off)
