Well, until last night it looked like Atonement was down for the count, but could the film’s Best Picture (Drama) win actually propel it to an Oscar win? Well, let’s check the numbers shall we, as I bring you the latest update to my “Globes vs. Oscars” column, something I have done for the last few years (2005, 2007).
This will take a look at how the past 23 years of Golden Globe winner history compare to the Oscars. Will this give you an idea of who will win? Let’s see…
Okay, this is just above 50%, which is not a good sign for either Javier Bardem or Cate Blanchett if you go by the numbers. Of course, most of us know Bardem is the most likely to take home the Oscar, which means when I report this next year it will still be hovering just over 50%, but I think we also all know that Cate Blanchett is a dark horse to take home the supporting Oscar. As a matter of fact I see this strictly as the Hollywood Foreign Press giving the award to a foreign actress as I still think Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone is the frontrunner for Oscar gold.
Last year the Globes matched up with the Oscars with Jennifer Hudson, but the Oscars gave Alan Arkin the gold for his Little Miss Sunshine performance after Eddie Murphy’s chances were dashed by Norbit following his Golden win.
I say it every year, but the Globes sort of cheat in the Acting and Picture categories by handing out awards in a Drama category and in a Comedy/Musical category. This doubles the chances for a Globe winner to take home the Oscar. This, you would think, would mean the chances would be better for Daniel Day-Lewis, Johnny Depp, Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard, thinking two of the four are sure to take home an Oscar. However, the Globes have matched up only 60.8% of the time in the Actor category and a healthier 78.2% in the actress category.
Don’t fret you Oscar prognosticators, I have the answer for you. I can guarantee Day-Lewis takes home the Oscar on February 24th and that either Christie or Cotillard will be the one holding up gold as well (most likely Cotillard).
Last year was a 100% year for the match as Globe winners Helen Mirren and Forest Whitaker went on to take home the Oscar.
At 69% the director match would normally bode well for last night’s Globe winner Julian Schnabel, but yet again I see this as another Foreign press maneuver, but I actually thought it would go to Atonement‘s Joe Wright. However you look at it, I don’t see Schnabel taking home Oscar, but with a DGA nom and a Globe win under his belt he is now a firm lock for a nomination.
Nope, I still think the Coen brothers will be awarded come Oscar time for No Country for Old Men. If you are interested in the Globe director winners that didn’t take home the Oscar after winning over the course of the last 23 years, here yah go:
The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi’s Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
SIDE NOTE: Should Schnabel take home the Oscar it will be the fifth year in a row the Globe and Oscar winners matched up.
Here it is folks. The hotly debated Best Picture. Anyone taking a look at the candidates this year has got to be utterly confused as to who will even be nominated, let alone who will win Best Picture at the 2008 Oscars. Sure, No Country looks to be the favorite, but for a long time it was Atonement until Focus somehow managed to achieve utter silence for that film. Will Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will be Blood squeak in? Is it possible The Diving Bell and the Butterfly could serve an upset? Does last night’s win for Sweeney Todd mean it will be a back door nominee vying for a dark horse Best Picture win?
Considering one of the two Golden Globe winners over the past 23 years has gone on to win 73% of the time I am not sure I would put much stock in either Atonement or Sweeney Todd to win the Oscar.
As I said in my prediction column, where I thought No Country would take Best Picture (Drama), but if any film was going to beat it it would be the British flick Atonement. Sure enough, the foreign flick was picked once again. Strangely enough, for many, the big upset was Sweeney Todd taking Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) while Juno supporters were left holding their junk.
Juno may slide in as a nominee, but I think most people look at it as an inferior film to films such as Sweeney, No Country, Atonement, There Will be Blood and Michael Clayton. I am just calling ’em as I see ’em and that just happens to be the case.
Once again I think this is going to be a category where the Globes prove to be off, just as they were last year when neither Babel or Dreamgirls managed to win, with The Departed taking home Oscar gold.
So there you have it folks, the nominations for the 79th Academy Awards® will be announced on Tuesday, January 22, 2008, at 5:30 a.m. PST with the big show taking place on Sunday, February 24, 2008. RopeofSilicon will once again be live and updating with a live diary and winners as they happen and if you weren’t with us last night you can check out the 2008 Golden Globe winners here and Laremy’s oddly coherent coverage of Larry King and CNN’s presentation of the Globe press conference here in his Live Diary, which will hopefully be more fun for the Oscars.
Oh yeah, and if you are at a loss for the movies that will be nominated or were featured at the Golden Globes last night we have you covered there with the ULTIMATE OSCAR PREVIEW. Yeah, we are amazing!
