#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks in a Row
This weekend has all the makings of a disaster. The weekend between Christmas and New Years is historically strong, but what do I do with titles that will clearly have weak word of mouth? That’s why my only true prediction this weekend is frustration.
Estimate: $32.0 million
Alvin, Simon… Theodore! I’m not going wrong here again, I’m only dropping it 28% I think Water Horse hurts it a little bit or I’d boost it up even further. Don’t let me down this weekend Chipmunks!
Estimate: $20.3 million
3. I Am Legend
Why did this drop so hard last weekend? National Treasure: Book O’ Secrets hurt it that much? That gives me pause, and I won’t be shocked if AVP:R sneaks up and smacks me down.
Estimate: $18.2 million
It had a nice opening day, $3713 per theater. But I think the early adopters here will see it before Friday which will hurt the box office. Plus the early word is that it’s terrible. So there’s that too.
Estimate: $15.4 million
I’m watching The Matrix right now. It still holds up. As for The Water Horse it’s hard to work up much excitement either way. In less than a month no one will ever mention this title again.
Estimate: $15.2 million
If this had more theaters it would really make some noise. It’s an average movie, but well positioned against a top ten that has little in the way of drama.
Estimate: $9.8 million
7. Juno
It expands this weekend, gaining almost 700 theaters, so it’s reasonable to think we’ll see a little bump. For the record I was under the impression it was gaining theaters last weekend, so I was way off due to that. If only I’d learned comprehensive reading skills as a boy.
Estimate: $6.3 million
Why is this getting so much award love? My bet is that The Oscars will set matters straight. You have to have some semblance of an ending to get full credit, don’t you?
Estimate: $5.1 million
B-Luv reported that people came out of this one angry. Look, fans of musicals are rabid, but so are the folks who don’t want to see a musical. If you trick one of those crowds, without attracting the other… well, you’ve just gone and buggered yourself. Buggered yourself real good.
Estimate: $4.7 million
10. P.S. I Love You
At this point Enchanted is in 11th place, Walk Hard in 12th. I can’t see either of those making a move, no matter how weak this little romantic comedy is. Hillary Swank as a girl? Please!
Estimate: $3.7 million
