Box-Office Oracle: Dec. 21 – Dec. 23, 2007

ON
#1 movie predicted correctly: 5 Weeks in a Row
People aren’t as excited about this as they were Legend, I guarantee you that. That said it will still win the weekend as it’s in a whopping 3800 theaters! The five major releases this weekend will dilute any other shot at the top slot.
Estimate: $44.0 million
I am tempted to drop this further down the list due to all the competition but I think it will have strong word of mouth. So I’m only projecting a 47% loss.
Estimate: $40.8 million
The good news for Alvin is that no kid’s movies go wide this weekend. Add that to the fact that people still hate Compass and you have a winning formula.
Estimate: $14.0 million
I’m bullish on this title because if you want a comedy this weekend where else are you gonna go? They’ve been giving it a good marketing push too, so $4800 per theater doesn’t seem too nutso to me.
Estimate: $12.7 million
This is the title I’m most afraid of because it could go either way. It actually is a comedy, but are people going to get that from the trailer? It’s such an odd little duck of a title that I wonder what will become of it. I could be off by $5m in either direction fairly easily.
Estimate: $12.1 million
I didn’t see it, so I can’t hate too hard, but the trailer looked somewhat tired. Why can’t we have another big broad Rom-Com for the holiday season? You know, Love Actually style.
Estimate: $9.1 million
7. Juno
It gains a whole mess of theater counts this weekend so I see it thriving. That’s counter programming at its finest I’d say.
Estimate: $9.0 million
I still haven’t figured out who is supposed to see this. Like happy musicals? Well, how about a macabre one? Like Tim Burton? Well how about a Tim Burton film where they sing the whole time? Plus all the marketing has been a giant lie. Add all that up and you have a recipe for disaster.
Estimate: $8.1 million
My own personal perfect holiday would involve not seeing this.
Estimate: $4.3 million
The Golden Compass is neck and neck for the tenth slot but it felt good to drop it from the top ten. Plus Atonement is getting as much critical buzz as we can muster – this weekend the people will listen.
Estimate: $3.3 million