Two years ago I wrote up an article comparing the Golden Globe winners to the Oscars in an attempt to see if there was any way of finding a trend. Trying to see if we could predict who would win the Oscar after seeing who won the Globe. While the Oscar nominees won’t be out until January 23 I think we can still speculate with a considerable amount of accuracy. After all, those nominees are for the rest of the world, not us Oscar speculators… right?
Obviously we have a couple of speed bumps in the system since the Globes give the topline awards out based on genre giving them a far better chance of matching the Oscar winner. The previous article delved into the 10 years prior, spanning back to 1995. In this article we will do a more immediate look at the past and last night’s winners by comparing the 2005 and 2006 Globe and Oscar winners while giving you stats from the last 22 years. Let’s dig in!
We are starting with the one category that has the hardest time matching with Oscar as just over 50-percent of the past 22 Globe winners went on to win the Oscar. What does this mean for Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson? Well, if you look at the results from 2006 it means they win, but if you look back one year later it means they don’t. Ha! You are getting a lot of help here aren’t you?
In 2006 the Globes and Oscars agreed giving Clooney and Weisz the gold at both ceremonies, but in 2005 Closer was the Golden Globe favorite giving both Clive Owen and Natalie Portman the hardware while the Oscars felt Morgan Freeman and Cate Blanchett for their parts in Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator.
What do I think will happen? I think Eddie Murphy stands a very good chance to win, but I think Hudson is looking like a runner-up. My opinion on Hudson is that she can sing her ass off, but her performance in Dreamgirls was more of a singing performance than an acting performance. If you want to try and throw Catherine Zeta-Jones’ win in 2003 in my face for Chicago go ahead, I actually think there was far more acting in Chicago than Dreamgirls. As for last night I am satisfied with the Hudson win, but I see the Oscar going to a Babel girl.
This is where the Globes sort of cheat with their Comedy/Musical winners and Drama winners. I mean, with ten nominees and two awards you would think these categories would be a lock to match up, but au contraire my French friend (and the rest of you too). While the actress category seems to match up over 75-percent of the time the past 22 years, the actor winner has only matched up 59-percent of the time.
The previous two years did very well matching up however with Jamie Foxx and Hilary Swank taking home Globes and Oscars in 2005 and then Philip Seymour Hoffman and Reese Witherspoon matched up again in 2006. Hmmm, good news for two of last night’s winners I would say based on ’05 and ’06.
What do I think will happen? Well, I would be a fool to say Helen Mirren is not a lock to win the Oscar for Best Actress and while Sacha Baron Cohen had the best acceptance speech of the night last night I think it is going to be his dramatic Globe counterpart taking home the hardware. Forest Whitaker was fantastic in The Last King of Scotland and I see him taking home an Oscar for the role.
Best Director has decent numbers over the past 22 years with 68-percent matching, here have been the differences:
The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi’s Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
So, that means the past three years have been a match, and I think we will have the same result this year with Martin Scorsese finally getting his Oscar and bringing the house down with an acceptance speech for the ages. Okay, the speech will probably be lackluster, but people are going to cheer their asses off.
Now for the biggie. Traditionally this isn’t a surprise and don’t go thinking Babel stands a huge chance just because it won last night. All last night’s win means is that Iñárritu’s film just made itself the fifth nominee out of the several that sat on the bubble. What that means is that Dreamgirls stands a 77-percent chance of winning, but it will be up against some stiff competition in the likes of The Departed and The Queen with Little Miss Sunshine and Babel just happy to be at the party. Yeah, I am calling those as your noms, but as far as a winner between the top three…? Dreamgirls certainly has the edge, but I am not counting out The Departed just yet. In 2005 the Academy slobbered all over Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby and 2007 just might be Scorsese’s year for the big wet one to be planted.
So there you have it folks, the nominations for the 79th Academy Awards® will be announced on Tuesday, January 23, 2007, at 5:30 a.m. PST with the big show taking place on Sunday, February 25, 2007. RopeofSilicon will once again be live and updating with a live diary and winners as they happen and if you weren’t with us last night you missed some of the best coverage you will ever find, CLICK HERE to take a peek at everything you missed.
Oh yeah, and if you are at a loss for the movies that will be nominated or were featured at the Golden Globes last night we have you covered there with the ULTIMATE OSCAR PREVIEW. Yeah, we are amazing!
