I think the winner this weekend is Pixels, by a comfortable margin, but not by so much that it would be crazy if it didn’t pull it off. Pretty basic reasoning here, it’s still the summer, this is a family film, and they’ve got some nostalgia in there for the adults too. Plus, finally, a chance for old dad to impress someone with his Pac-Man skills immediately after the film. My closest comparison was Hotel Transylvania, another thematic Sandler vehicle. Yeah, one was animated and the other one is live-action, loaded with CGI, but they should end up at the same place financially. I’ve got it coming in at $40 million. What do you think?
Paper Towns has a very easy similar film for us to consider, The Fault in Our Stars. No, not thematically, but the source material is angsty and tweeny, not that I’m deriding it, because I’ve read and enjoyed them all. The Fault in Our Stars opened at $48 million, I’m not putting it that high because I think the material is less accessible overall. $30 million is where I’m at, still awesome given the budget, is my thought.
Next on the board is Ant-Man. It opened about where I expected, but I’m not as confident on my prediction for this weekend. I don’t feel as though this is the “typical” Marvel film (in the sense that a huge frontload can be expected). It’s more like a “normal” comedy/action where people probably waited to hear what others thought. Well, others thought it was an “A” Cinemascore, good enough for me not to ding it the full 60 percent Marvel bleed. Still above 50 percent at $27.7 million, naturally, but with the moderate opening number a moderate dip looks doable.
Last up is Southpaw. The only innovative thing here is how tragic the entire story is, but I think $16.2 million correctly identifies how many people want to see another boxing story. This is half of The Equalizer‘s number, but that brutally violent film was a true redemption story. This one? Not so much.
It’s your turn now, predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
