Pitch Perfect 2 is a mystery in that the frontload is difficult to project. Remember that the first one was a slow burn at the box office – and although this one had much more pent-up fervor, it still should be way less frontloaded than a superhero film (based on the demographic alone). Brad has set the budget here at an absurdly low $29 million which means this is a massive hit already. I’m putting it at $36 million, so it’s anyone’s ballgame because …
Tomorrowland is the second mystery! Hmmm, I suppose they are all mysteries, eh? However, the trailers look average and the reviews are middling, only 53 percent. $35 million is where I’m at right now, within fingernail distance of first place. The main issue here is that word of mouth may sink it by Sunday.
Poltergeist is the other new wide release of the weekend. Horrors have a definite but also capped audiences. Could Poltergeist reach across the aisle as a sentimental remake choice? Naaah, but $22.4 million isn’t nothing, and the production budget was probably low … even as the fake blood budget was high.
Does one last look at Avengers: Age of Ultron interest you? Already a financial success at $1.2 billion, the only question is where this will end up. Remember, the first one finished $300 million above that, which seems a bit too far to hope for Marvel. Another $21.3 million will be added to the tally this weekend, though the fact Tomorrowland is taking its IMAX screens could be cause for a bigger drop than expected.
Now it’s your turn, predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
