Current Streak: 1 Straight Weekend #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: Moderate.
Reason: You could make the case that Cloud Atlas beats the Silent Hill sequel. I won’t be making that case, but one could theoretically do so. Let’s break it down!
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D is the favorite, but it’s not an overwhelming winner this weekend. Only twice in the past five Halloween weekends has a horror taken the title, and both times it was a member of the Saw franchise. Other winners include High School Musical 3, This is It and Puss in Boots, so it’s not necessarily a weekend geared toward scares alone. Aaaaaaaaand Paranormal Activity 4 won last weekend.
So why take the horror film here? Easy peasy, lemon squeezy: Silent Hill: Revelation 3D has higher tracking numbers, a more palatable running time and a nearly 1,000 theater advantage. I’ve gone down in flames by choosing the film I personally prefer too often, but no more! $18.2 million for Silent Hill… let’s move on…
As for films I enjoyed, Cloud Atlas is clearly a worthy contender. But if you look at the film’s pedigree, I just don’t see the financial strength. Speed Racer opened at $18 million, but I think The Fountain‘s $15 million worldwide cume speaks volumes about how audiences treat heady sci-fi. Sure, Prometheus opened above $50 million, but they marketed it heavily, and it did get an Alien bump, regardless of the actual content.
It’s also important to note Cloud Atlas is a giant 70 minutes longer than Silent Hill: Revelation 3D, which could cost it a full showtime at certain theaters and, as I said, it’s playing in nearly 1,000 fewer theaters. As such, I have Cloud Atlas winning the per theater battle, but losing the weekend total war, managing $14.5 million this weekend.
Anyone out there want to talk about Fun Size? I give them credit, they did screen this film, but I haven’t heard one person mention it, anywhere. Nor have I seen a commercial. It’s a shame, but it looks like Paramount has given up on this one, which saddens me as a Josh Schwartz (“The O.C.”, “Chuck”) fan. That 33 percent on RottenTomatoes won’t help matters either!
Finally, Chasing Mavericks should at least get a mention. With main characters named Frosty and Moriarty, this one looks primed for Internet buzz … alas, it’s another low tracking / low theater count victim. Lead actor Gerard Butler seems to come from the school of “One for me, one for them” script choices, and this one looks to be on the “non-commercial” track a la Coriolanus, RockNRolla and Gamer.
Enough prognostication, how say you? Predictions on all four new releases will be considered, if you’ve got something plausible, please lay down your theory as to why Cloud Atlas, Paranormal Activity 4, or Silent Hill: Revelation 3D will take the weekend!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
