Current Streak: 2 Straight Weekends #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: High
Reason: You could make the case (and I’m about to) that three films have a legitimate shot at the crown this weekend. Taken 2 needs a couple of breaks, but a repeat isn’t out of the question. Argo is getting an advertising blitz and will have exceptional word of mouth. Finally, Sinister is a compelling dark horse. So why are we going the way we’re going? Let’s break it down!
Argo has very few comparables. Do you go with The Town, a September release that managed a $23 million dollar opening weekend? Eh, I go slightly higher, as I think this film has a higher “fun” quotient. It’s an old-school thriller, and I think audiences are going to respond to it to the tune of $28 million and an opening weekend #1 were it’s really anybody’s game.
Speaking of responses, how in the world did Taken 2 get a B+ CinemaScore? Do people just hand out a B+ like hotcakes these days? Do people still sell hotcakes? Clearly, I’m flummoxed, as Taken 2 gave me nightmares with its terribleness. Which leads to a box office reckoning, because the first Taken (a good film) performed well for about 13 straight weekends. I think the call here is sheer demographics, the folks who have already seen this will choose Argo instead, and the older folks who haven’t seen Taken 2 will also see Argo instead. I suppose, at this point, I’m imploring the world to see Argo instead. It’s not a memo, it’s a mission statement.
The weekend’s intrigue continues, as Sinister has a healthy 71 percent RottenTomatoes score along with plenty of ‘net buzz. Will it translate? In this case, yes, though with only 2,500 theaters to play with I’d put the shot at #1 at no better than 10 percent with a prediction of a $16.4 million opening.
Conversely, Here Comes the Boom won’t be able to cash in on those 3,000 theaters, partly because it looks ridiculous, and also because it faces serious family dollar competition. You can’t like The Boom‘s chances this weekend, no matter the amount of Kevin James they throw your way via marketing channels. I give it $12 million and we move on to…
Atlas Shrugged: Part II is getting something the original never had, 1,000 theaters, though the first one took such a bath ($4.6 million on a $20 million dollar production budget) that they have their work cut of for them. The marketing is very savvy, going after our polarized electorate, so they should be able to cash in and convert a portion of the Republican dollar.
Finally, a plea for Seven Psychopaths. My favorite film of the year is only getting 1,475 theaters, not nearly enough to make a dent, but I’d urge you to see it if you liked Adaptation, True Romance, or other offbeat quasi-violent films. It’s rather formless, but the one-liners should sustain you. My prediction… $10.3 million.
Enough pontificating, how say you? A staggering five new releases to predict, go out there and get some!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
