Three out of the past four years have featured a second week in December under $90m (top twelve cume). I’m not sure if the schedule is getting more compact around the summer… or if the last weekend is the most bankable. 2007 is starting to look like a real anomaly, with three weekends finishing above $100m.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 7 Weeks In A Row
Athar, John-PT, Gophers Attack! and Jeremy Baril had alert Thursday calls under $30m. As it turned out The Princess and the Frog could only muster $25m, a result that can’t be what Disney and Lasseter were shooting for out of their 2-D effort. Even worse, Avatar is going to draw in huge family dollars. I enjoyed The Princess and the Frog but as I left the theater I thought “That’s not enough to save 2-D.”
Result: 25.0 million (My rank: #1, $9.3m off)
Commenter Nick said I was too low… and he was absolutely correct. Blind Side remains a box-office juggernaut. Does anyone see it doing well internationally? It will be hugely profitable either way, just curious as to whether football translates.
Result: 15.4 million (My rank: #2, $3.9m off)
3. Invictus
I sort of held out hope that the adult drama wasn’t doomed. I thought the movie was solid, but not great, and I wasn’t sure why the focus was so split. Why not just a “life of Mandela” film instead? The production budget is estimated at $60m, so they’ve still got some work to do.
Result: 9.0 million (My rank: #2, $3.8m off)
Does anyone have an experience with the site TheNumbers.com? Commenter Mystery brought the site up because they have international numbers for Up posted, but I’ve always used BoxOfficeMojo so I’m not sure how reputable this Numbers site is.
Result: 8.0 million (My rank: #4, $1.9m off)
It had the best drop-off of any holdover from last week (not counting The Princess and the Frog‘s limited theater release). Here’s an interesting query: Which film is better off financially — A Christmas Carol or Where the Wild Things Are?
Result: 6.8 million (My rank: #6, $3.0m off)
6. Brothers
My prediction was solid… but Christmas Carol jumped up and bit me on placement. After all the meanness I’ve thrown its way I suppose I deserve that.
Result: 5.0 million (My rank: #5, $.2m off)
7. 2012
Once you factor in DVD and other rights we could be looking at a billion dollar film here. And I’ll admit it, I’d kinda like to see a sequel.
Result: 4.4 million (My rank: #9, $1.6m off)
8. Old Dogs
I’m using my once per month pass. There’s just not much to talk about with this title.
Result: 4.3 million (My rank: #8, $1.4m off)
9. Armored
I talked to a few people who liked it, and a few who hated it. Can anyone break the tie? Is Armored worth the eight to ten bucks for admission?
Result: 3.5 million (My rank: #7, $.1m off)
10. Ninja Assassin
Up in the Air could still take this slot, and that’s something to cheer for.
Result: 2.7 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
Any surprises this weekend for you? I’m sure you’ll be throwing out early Avatar calls too, so I want to get on the record that I’m thinking $70m – $80m. That running time will hurt it a bit.
