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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for September 2 - 5, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (update 9.1.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

(Note: All of the below are four-day predictions)

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Apollo 18

$16.7

N/A

3,328

$5,018

1

2

1

The Help

$14.5

-3%

2,830

$5,100

4

3

New

Shark Night 3D

$12.5

N/A

2,806

$4,455

1

4

New

The Debt

$8.2

N/A

1,826

$4,491

1

5

2

Colombiana

$6.7

-36%

2,614

$2,563

1

6

4

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

$6.4

-25%

3,193

$2,004

5

7

3

Don't Be Afraid of the Dark

$5.1

-40%

2,760

$1,835

2

8

5

Our Idiot Brother

$5.0

-29%

2,555

$1,957

2

9

6

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World

$4.5

-25%

2,900

$1,497

3

10

7

The Smurfs

$4.1

-13%

2,600

$1,515

6

Est. Weekend Total
$83.70

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 24%

Est. Average PTA
$3,043



COMPARISONS:

APOLLO 18 (The Weinstein Company)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Paranormal Actvity 2

10/22/10

3,216

$40.68

$12,649

$84.75

Paranormal Activity

9/25/09

763

$13.55

$19.62

$25,711

$107.92

Apollo 13

6/30/95

2,197

$25.35

$11,538

$172.07

Event Horizon

8/15/97

2,311

$9.51

$4,115

$26.64

Mission to Mars

3/10/00

3,054

$22.86

$7,485

$60.87

The Last Exorcism

8/27/10

2,874

$20.37

$7,087

$40.99

The Blair Witch Project

7/30/99

1,101

$6.93

$29.21

$26,530

$140.53



SHARK NIGHT 3D (Relativity Media)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Open Water

8/6/04

2,709

$11.41

$4,213

$30.17

Deep Blue Sea

7/30/99

2,854

$6.06

$19.11

$6,696

$73.65

Snakes on a Plane

8/18/06

37,485

$15.03

$4,277

$34.02

Piranha 3D

8/20/10

2,470

$10.11

$4,092

$25.00

Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid

8/27/04

2,905

$12.81

$4,410

$31.53

Anaconda

4/11/97

2,456

$16.62

$6,767

$65.50

Primeval

1/12/07

2,444

$6.05

$2,475

$10.60

Lake Placid

7/16/99

2,095

$10.97

$5,236

$31.65

Sphere

2/13/98

2,814

$14.45

$5,135

$37.30



THE DEBT (Focus Features)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Arthur

4/8/11

3,276

$12.22

$3,731

$33.05

The Tempest

12/10/10

5

$0.04

$8,487

$0.26

RED

10/15/10

3,255

$21.76

$6,865

$90.38

State of Play

4/17/09

2,803

$14.07

$5,020

$37.02

Inkheart

1/23/09

2,655

$7.60

$2,863

$17.30

The Queen

9/29/06

606

$15.00

$2.20

$3,633

$56.44

Calendar Girls

12/19/03

745

$2.52

$4.44

$5,956

$31.01

Clash of the Titans

4/2/10

3,777

$61.24

$16,213

$163.21

Terminator Salvation

5/21/09

3,530

$42.56

$12,056

$125.32

Avatar

12/18/09

3,452

$77.03

$22,313

$738.39

The American

9/1/10

3,472

$3.14

$16.66

$5,902

$35.61

The Constant Gardener

9/2/05

1,346

$1.72

$10.96

$8,144

$31.25

Traitor

8/27/08

2,054

$10.00

$3,831

$23.53

$1.50



LABOR DAY RELEASES

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Halloween

8/31/07

3,472

$30.59

$8,810

$58.27

The Transporter 2

9/2/05

3,303

$20.10

$6,087

$43.10

Jeepers Creepers 2

8/29/03

3,124

$18.37

$5,879

$35.14

The American

9/1/10

3,472

$3.14

$16.66

$5,902

$35.61

Jeepers Creepers

8/31/01

2,944

$15.84

$5,380

$37.81

Balls of Fury

8/29/07

3,052

$2.97

$14.10

$4,623

$32.88

Machete

9/3/10

2,670

$14.10

$5,282

$26.59

All About Steve

9/4/09

2,251

$11.24

$4,994

$33.86

Crank

9/1/06

2,515

$12.90

$5,127

$27.84



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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