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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for October 7 - 9, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 10.6.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Real Steel

$27.5

N/A

3,440

$7,994

1

2

New

Ides of March

$11.3

N/A

2,199

$5,139

1

3

1

Dolphin Tale

$10.0

-28%

3,478

$2,851

3

4

2

Moneyball

$7.6

-38%

3,018

$2,539

3

5

4

Courageous

$6.0

-45%

1,161

$5,150

2

6

5

50-50

$5.5

-36%

2,479

$2,105

2

7

3

The Lion King 3D

$5.2

-50%

2,267

$3,038

4

8

6

Dream House

$3.8

-54%

2,664

$1,429

2

9

8

What's Your Number?

$3.0

-45%

3,011

$999

2

10

7

Abduction

$2.8

-50%

2,591

$1,018

3

Est. Weekend Total
$82.80

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 42%

Est. Average PTA
$3,177



COMPARISONS:

REAL STEEL (DreamWorks)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

X-Men Origins: Wolverine

5/1/09

4,099

$85.06

$20,751

$179.88

Australia

11/26/08

2,642

$5.20

$14.80

$5,602

$49.55

Deception

4/25/08

2,001

$2.31

$1,155

$4.60

The Fountain

11/22/06

1,472

0.826

$3.77

$2,560

$10.14

Happy Feet

11/17/06

3,804

$41.53

$10,918

$197.99

Flushed Away

11/3/06

3,707

$18.81

$5,075

$64.67

Date Night

4/9/10

3,374

$25.21

$7,471

$98.46

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

5/22/09

4,096

$54.17

$13,226

$177.05

Night at the Museum

12/22/06

3,685

$30.43

$8,259

$250.86

The Pink Panther

2/10/06

3,477

$20.22

$5,815

$82.23

Cheaper By the Dozen

12/26/03

3,298

$8.18

$27.56

$8,356

$128.03

The Transformers

7/6/07

4,011

$84.90

$70.50

$17,577

$319.25

Iron Giant

8/6/99

2,179

$0.02

$5.73

$2,630

$23.16

X-Men Origins: Wolverine

5/1/09

4,099

$85.06

$20,751

$179.88

Australia

11/26/08

2,642

$5.20

$14.80

$5,602

$49.55



THE IDES OF MARCH (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The American

9/1/10

3,472

$3.14

$13.18

$5,902

$35.61

Up in the Air

12/25/09

1,895

$12.76

$11.27

$5,947

$83.81

The Men Who Stare at Goats

11/6/09

2,443

$12.71

$5,201

$32.43

Burn After Reading

9/12/08

2,651

$19.13

$7,215

$60.36

Michael Clayton

10/5/07

2,511

$1.08

$10.37

$4,131

$49.02

Leatherheads

4/4/08

2,769

$12.68

$4,580

$31.23

Good Night, and Good Luck

10/7/05

657

$7.90

$3.07

$4,667

$54.60

Drive

9/16/11

2,886

$11.34

$3,929

$27.20

Crazy, Stupid, Love.

7/29/11

3,020

$19.10

$6,326

$82.37

Stay

10/21/05

1,684

$2.19

$1,299

$3.62

The Notebook

6/25/04

2,303

$13.46

$5,847

$79.67

Fracture

4/20/07

2,443

$11.01

$4,509

$38.99

Swing Vote

8/1/08

2,213

$6.23

$2,815

$16.23

Man of the Year

10/13/06

2,515

$12.30

$4,890

$37.44

Primary Colors

3/20/98

1,965

$12.05

$6,132

$39.30



Copyright 2011 Edward Douglas

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