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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for May 6 - 8, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 5.5.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Thor

$68.5

N/A

3,955

$17,320

1

2

1

Fast Five

$38.0

-56%

3,662

$10,377

2

3

New

Something Borrowed

$13.5

N/A

2,904

$4,649

1

4

New

Jumping the Broom

$10.4

N/A

2,035

$5,111

1

5

2

Rio

$9.2

-38%

3,258

$2,824

4

6

4

Water for Elephants

$5.5

-40%

2,614

$2,104

3

7

3

Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family

$4.5

-54%

1,881

$2,392

3

8

6

Hoodwinked Too!: Hood vs. Evil

$2.7

-35%

2,505

$1,078

2

9

5

Prom

$2.5

-46%

2,730

$916

2

10

7

Soul Surfer

$2.0

-41%

1,781

$1,179

5

Est. Weekend Total
$156.80

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 44%

Est. Average PTA
$4,795



COMPARISONS:

THOR (Marvel/Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Iron Man 2

5/7/10

4,380

$128.12

$29,252

$312.13

Iron Man

5/2/08

4,105

$3.50

$98.62

$24,877

$316.04

The Incredible Hulk

6/13/08

3,505

$55.41

$15,810

$134.53

The Hulk

6/20/03

3,660

$62.13

$16,975

$132.12

Ghost Rider

2/16/07

3,619

$45.39

$12,542

$115.80

Daredevil

2/14/03

3,471

$40.31

$11,613

$102.54

X2: X-Men United

5/2/03

3,741

$85.56

$22,871

$214.95

Spider-Man 3

5/4/07

4,252

$151.12

$35,540

$336.53

Spider-Man

5/3/02

3,615

$114.84

$31,769

$405.69

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer

6/15/07

3,957

$58.05

$131.92

Fantastic Four

7/8/05

3,602

$56.06

$56.06

$154.70



SOMETHING BORROWED (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

My Best Friend's Girl

9/19/09

2,604

$8.27

$3,174

$19.15

Bride Wars

1/9/09

3,226

$21.06

$6,528

$58.72

You, Me and Dupree

7/14/06

3,131

$21.53

$6,875

$75.80

Raising Helen

5/28/04

2,717

$10.98

$4,043

$37.49

How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days

2/7/03

2,923

$23.77

$8,134

$105.81

Leatherheads

4/4/08

2,769

$12.68

$4,580

$31.23

License to Wed

7/3/07

2,604

$10.42

$4,002

$43.79

He's Just Not That Into You

2/6/09

3,175

$27.79

$8,751

$93.93

Walk the Line

11/18/05

2,961

$22.35

$7,547

$119.40

Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!

1/23/04

2,711

$7.32

$2,700

$16.96

Made of Honor

5/2/08

2,729

$14.76

$5,407

$46.01

The Wedding Planner

1/26/01

2,785

$13.51

$4,851

$60.40

My Best Friend's Wedding

6/20/97

2,134

$21.68

$10,159

$126.81



JUMPING THE BROOM (Sony/Tristar)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Notorious

1/16/09

1,638

$20.50

$12,514

$36.84

Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns

3/21/08

2,006

$20.08

$10,011

$41.98

Akeelah and the Bee

4/28/06

2,195

$6.01

$2,739

$18.85

How Stella Got Her Groove Back

8/14/98

1,395

$11.32

$8,115

$37.65

Waiting to Exhale

12/22/95

1,253

$14.13

$11,277

$67.01

Lottery Ticket

8/20/10

1,973

$10.65

$5,388

$24.71

Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins

2/8/08

2,387

$16.21

$6,790

$42.17

Something New

2/3/06

1,265

$4.88

$3,857

$11.47

The Honeymooners

6/10/05

1,912

$5.54

$2,897

$12.83

For Colored Girls

11/5/10

2,127

$19.50

$9,167

$37.65

First Sunday

1/11/08

2,213

$17.71

$8,005

$37.93

This Christmas

11/21/07

1,858

8.38

$17.96

$9,665

$49.12

Not Easily Broken

1/9/09

724

$5.31

$7,340

$10.57

Woman Thou Art Loosed

10/1/04

408

$2.33

$5,700

$6.88

Brown Sugar

10/11/02

1,372

$10.74

$7,827

$27.36

The Best Man

10/22/99

1,345

$9.03

$6,714

$33.29

Soul Food

9/26/97

1,339

$11.20

$8,364

$43.49


Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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