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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for March 18 - 20, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 3.17)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

1

Battle: Los Angeles

$17.0

-53%

3,417

$4,975

2

2

2

Rango

$14.6

-35%

3,843

$3,799

3

3

New

Limitless

$13.7

N/A

2,756

$4,971

1

4

New

The Lincoln Lawyer

$11.5

N/A

2,707

$4,248

1

5

New

Paul

$10.8

N/A

2,801

$3,856

1

6

4

The Adjustment Bureau

$7.2

-38%

2,700

$2,712

3

7

3

Red Riding Hood

$6.5

-54%

3,030

$2,178

2

8

5

Mars Needs Moms

$4.3

-38%

3,117

$1,380

2

9

7

Hall Pass

$3.0

-40%

2,300

$1,575

4

10

6

Beastly

$2.8

-45%

1,650

$1,547

3

Est. Weekend Total
$91.50

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 43%

Est. Average PTA
$3,124



COMPARISONS:

PAUL (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Star Trek

5/8/09

3,849

$79.20

$20,578

$257.70

How to Lose Friends

10/3/08

1,750

$1.43

$817

$2.78

Run, Fat Boy, Run

3/28/08

1,133

$2.34

$2,066

$6.00

Hot Fuzz

4/20/07

825

$5.85

$7,089

$23.62

Shaun of the Dead

9/24/04

607

$3.33

$5,487

$13.46

Adventureland

4/3/09

1,862

$5.72

$3,073

$16.04

Superbad

8/17/07

2,948

$33.05

$11,212

$121.46

Zack and Miri Make a Porno

10/31/08

2,735

$10.06

$3,680

$31.45

Pineapple Express

8/6/08

3,072

$18.07

$23.25

$7,567

$87.34

Race to Witch Mountain

3/13/09

3,187

$24.40

$7,657

$67.17

Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

8/13/10

2,818

$10.61

$3,765

$31.49

MacGruber

5/21/10

2,551

$4.04

$1,585

$8.46



LIMITLESS (Relativity Media)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The A-Team

6/11/10

3,535

$25.67

$7,262

$77.22

Valentine's Day

2/12/10

3,665

$56.26

$15,351

$110.46

All About Steve

9/4/09

2,251

$11.24

$4,994

$33.86

The Hangover

6/5/09

3,269

$44.98

$13,759

$277.37

He's Just Not That Into You

2/6/09

3,175

$27.79

$8,751

$93.93

Failure to Launch

3/10/06

3,057

$24.41

$7,985

$88.72

Wedding Crashers

7/15/05

2,925

$33.90

$11,590

$209.22

The Illusionist

8/18/06

971

$4.06

$6.31

$6,495

$39.87

City by the Sea

9/6/02

2,575

$8.94

$3,470

$22.43

15 Minutes

3/9/01

2,337

$10.52

$4,503

$24.38

The A-Team

6/11/10

3,535

$25.67

$7,262

$77.22

Valentine's Day

2/12/10

3,665

$56.26

$15,351

$110.46



THE LINCOLN LAWYER (Lionsgate)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past

5/1/09

3,175

$15.41

$4,854

$55.25

Fool's Gold

2/8/08

3,125

$21.59

$6,909

$70.23

We Are Marshall

12/22/06

2,606

$6.11

$2,346

$43.55

Two for the Money

10/7/05

2,391

$8.70

$3,640

$22.15

Frailty

4/12/02

1,497

$4.21

$2,806

$13.08

A Time to Kill

7/26/96

2,123

$4.81

$14.82

$6,981

$108.77

Stop-Loss

3/28/08

1,291

$4.55

$3,528

$10.91

Brach

2/16/07

1,489

$10.50

$7,055

$33.00

Flags of our Fathers

10/20/06

1,876

$10.25

$5,461

$33.60

Crash

5/6/05

1,864

$9.11

$4,886

$54.56

Anti-Trust

1/12/01

2,432

$4.78

$1,965

$10.97

Runaway Jury

10/17/03

2,815

$11.84

$4,205

$49.36

Blood Work

8/9/02

2,525

$7.31

$2,896

$26.20

Murder By Numbers

4/19/02

2,642

$9.31

$3,495

$31.87

Primal Fear

4/5/96

1,983

$2.02

$9.87

$4,977

$56.07

Murder in the First

1/20/95

1,237

$4.72

$3,816

$16.78



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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