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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for July 22 - 24, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 7.21.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

(Note: There probably won't be a Thursday update this week due to our Comic-Con obligations.)

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

1

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2

$68.0

-60%

4,375

$15,543

2

2

New

Captain America: The First Avenger

$63.2

N/A

3,715

$17,012

1

3

New

Friends with Benefits

$21.5

N/A

2,926

$7,348

1

4

3

Horrible Bosses

$11.2

-39%

3,104

$3,608

3

5

2

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

$10.0

-53%

3,375

$2,963

4

6

4

Zookeeper

$7.6

-38%

3,215

$2,364

3

7

5

Winnie the Pooh

$5.1

-35%

2,405

$2,121

2

8

6

Cars 2

$4.8

-43%

2,668

$1,799

5

9

7

Bad Teacher

$2.7

-48%

2,023

$1,327

5

10

8

Larry Crowne

$1.0

-63%

1,029

$972

4

Est. Weekend Total
$195.10

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 47%

Est. Average PTA
$5,506



COMPARISONS:

CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER (Marvel Studios/Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

8/13/10

2,818

$10.61

$3,765

$31.61

The Losers

4/23/10

2,936

$9.41

$3,204

$23.59

Push

2/6/09

2,313

$10.08

$4,358

$31.81

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer

6/15/07

3,957

$58.05

$14,670

$131.92

Sunshine

7/20/07

461

$0.37

$1.26

$2,740

$3.69

Fantastic Four

7/8/05

3,602

$56.06

$15,564

$154.70

Cellular

9/10/04

2,749

$10.10

$3,674

$32.00

The Wolf Man

2/12/10

3,222

$31.48

$9,770

$61.94

Thor

5/6/11

3,955

$65.72

$16,618

$179.03

Iron Man

5/2/08

4,105

$3.50

$98.62

$24,877

$316.04

Iron Man 2

5/7/10

4,380

$128.12

$29,252

$312.13

The Incredible Hulk

6/13/08

3,505

$55.41

$15,810

$134.53

The Hulk

6/20/03

3,660

$62.13

$16,975

$132.12

X-Men Origins: Wolverine

5/1/09

4,099

$85.06

$20,751

$179.88

The X-Men

7/14/00

3,025

$54.47

$18,007

$157.30

G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

8/7/09

4,007

$54.71

$13,654

$150.20



FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (Screen Gems/Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Bad Teacher

6/24/11

3,049

$31.60

$10,365

$78.67

The Social Network

10/1/10

2,771

$22.45

$8,100

$96.96

Black Snake Moan

3/2/07

1,252

$4.41

$3,309

$9.40

The Love Guru

6/20/08

3,012

$13.91

$4,617

$32.18

Alpha Dog

1/12/07

1,289

$6.41

$4,975

$15.22

Black Swan

12/3/10

959

$7.40

$8.38

$8,742

$106.67

The Book of Eli

1/15/10

3,111

$32.79

$10,540

$94.84

Max Payne

10/17/08

3,376

$17.64

$5,225

$40.69

Forgetting Sarah Marshall

4/18/08

2,798

$17.73

$6,335

$63.17

Easy A

9/17/10

2,856

$17.73

$6,209

$58.40

Fired Up!

2/20/09

1,810

$5.44

$3,030

$10.04

No Strings Attached

1/21/11

3,018

$19.67

$6,512

$70.60



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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