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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for July 15 - 17, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (updated 7.14.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2

$142.8

N/A

4,375

$32,640

1

2

1

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

$21.5

-55%

4,011

$5,360

3

3

2

Horrible Bosses

$16.4

-42%

3,010

$5,449

2

4

3

Zookeeper

$10.5

-48%

3,450

$3,043

2

5

New

Winnie the Pooh

$8.0

N/A

2,350

$3,404

1

6

4

Cars 2

$7.5

-51%

3,500

$2,143

4

7

5

Bad Teacher

$5.0

-47%

2,650

$1,887

4

8

6

Larry Crowne

$3.5

-45%

2,550

$1,373

3

9

7

Super 8

$2.9

-40%

1,780

$1,629

6

10

8

Monte Carlo

$1.8

-54%

2,472

$728

3

Est. Weekend Total
$215.70

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 48%

Est. Average PTA
$5,778



COMPARISONS:

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1

11/19/10

4,125

$125.02

$30,307

$294.90

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

7/15/09

4,325

$80.19

$77.84

$17,997

$301.75

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

7/11/07

4,181

$62.61

$77.11

$17,995

$292.00

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

11/18/05

3,858

$102.69

$26,616

$289.99

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

6/4/04

3,855

$93.69

$24,303

$249.51

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets

11/15/02

3,682

$88.36

$23,997

$261.99

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone

11/16/01

3,672

$90.29

$24,590

$317.57

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

12/19/03

3,703

$51.47

$72.62

$19,614

$377.03

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

12/20/02

3,622

$40.04

$61.50

$16,980

$340.48

The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings

12/21/01

3,359

$27.91

$47.21

$14,055

$313.39

The Twilight Saga: Eclipse

6/30/10

4,468

$92.74

$64.83

$14,510

$300.53

The Twilight Saga New Moon

11/20/09

4,024

$142.84

$35,497

$296.60

Twilight

11/21/08

3,419

$69.64

$20,368

$191.41



WINNIE THE POOH (Walt Disney Pictures)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Pooh's Heffalump Movie

2/11/05

2,529

$5.81

$2,296

$18.08

Piglet's Big Movie

3/21/03

2,084

$6.10

$2,926

$23.07

The Tigger Movie

2/11/00

2,723

$9.43

$3,463

$45.54

Doug's 1st Movie

3/26/99

2,268

$4.47

$1,971

$19.42

Disney's Teacher's Pet

1/16/04

2,027

$3.60

$1,777

$6.49

The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything: A Veggie Tales Movie

1/11/08

1,337

$4.25

$5.45

$3,180

Jonah: A VeggieTales Movie

10/4/02

940

$6.20

$6,597

$25.57



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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