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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for January 14 - 17, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

(All of the predictions below are for the four-day extended weekend.)

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

The Green Hornet

$39.3

N/A

3,570

$11,008

1

2

New

The Dilemma

$26.7

N/A

2,930

$9,113

1

3

1

True Grit

$10.3

-30%

3,000

$3,433

4

4

2

Little Fockers

$9.0

-34%

3,200

$2,813

4

5

5

Black Swan

$8.5

5%

2,100

$4,048

7

6

3

TRON: Legacy

$6.5

-35%

2,850

$2,281

5

7

9

The King's Speech

$5.2

-19%

830

$6,256

6

8

8

Yogi Bear

$5.2

-22%

2,950

$1,763

4

9

6

Country Strong

$5.1

-30%

1,650

$3,091

4

10

7

The Fighter

$5.1

-27%

2,350

$2,170

5

Est. Weekend Total
$120.90

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 24%

Est. Average PTA
$4,598



COMPARISONS:


THE GREEN HORNET (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Funny People

7/31/09

3,007

$22.66

$7,535

$51.81

Observe and Report

4/10/09

2,727

$11.02

$4,040

$23.62

Zack and Miri Make a Porno

10/31/08

2,735

$10.06

$3,680

$31.45

Pineapple Express

8/6/08

3,072

$18.07

$23.25

$7,567

$87.34

Superbad

8/17/07

2,948

$33.05

$11,212

$121.46

Knocked Up

6/1/07

2,871

$30.69

$10,690

$146.28

The 40-Year-Old Virgin

8/19/05

2,845

$21.42

$7,530

$109.24

The Mask

7/29/94

2,360

$1.87

$23.12

$9,797

$119.92

Kick-Ass

4/16/10

3,065

$19.83

$6,469

$48.04

Ghost Rider

2/16/07

3,619

$45.39

$12,542

$115.80

Daredevil

2/14/03

3,471

$40.31

$11,613

$102.54

The Legend of Zorro

10/28/05

3,520

$16.33

$4,639

$45.36

Mask of Zorro

7/17/98

2,515

$22.53

$8,958

$93.83

The Spirit

12/25/08

2,509

3.842

$6.46

$2,576

$19.78

The Phantom

6/7/96

2,159

$5.07

$2,348

$16.68

The Shadow

7/1/94

1,677

$11.71

$6,983

$31.84

Dick Tracy

6/15/90

2,332

$22.54

$9,666

$103.74



THE DILEMMA (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Couples Retreat

10/9/09

3,000

$34.29

$11,429

$108.96

Four Christmases

11/26/08

3,310

$14.98

$31.07

$9,387

$120.14

Fred Claus

11/9/07

3,604

$18.52

$5,139

$71.89

The Break-Up

6/2/06

3,070

$39.17

$12,760

$118.81

Wedding Crashers

7/15/05

2,925

$33.90

$11,590

$209.22

Grown Ups

6/25/10

3,534

$40.51

$11,462

$162.00

Paul Blart: Mall Cop

1/16/09

3,144

$39.23

$12,479

$142.79

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry

7/20/07

3,495

$34.23

$9,795

$119.68

Hitch

2/11/05

3,575

$43.14

$12,068

$177.58

Date Night

4/9/10

3,374

$25.21

$7,471

$98.46



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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