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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for February 18 - 21, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

All predictions below are for the four-day weekend:

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

I Am Number Four

$33.5

N/A

3,350

$10,000

1

2

New

Unknown

$23.5

N/A

3,100

$7,581

1

3

New

Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son

$21.0

N/A

2,950

$7,119

1

4

3

Gnomeo and Juliet

$20.5

-19%

2,994

$6,880

2

5

1

Just Go With It

$20.2

-43%

3,550

$5,690

2

6

2

Justin Bieber: Never Say Never

$18.0

-39%

3,105

$5,797

2

7

5

The King's Speech

$7.5

+5%

1,950

$3,897

11

8

4

The Eagle

$6.0

-31%

2,296

$2,613

2

9

7

No Strings Attached

$5.1

-13%

2,450

$2,082

5

10

6

The Roommate

$4.8

-43%

2,150

$2,233

3

Est. Weekend Total
$160.20

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 26%

Est. Average PTA
$5,389



COMPARISONS:

I AM NUMBER FOUR (DreamWorks)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Eagle Eye

9/25/08

3,510

$29.15

$8,305

$101.40

Disturbia

4/13/08

2,925

$22.22

$7,598

$80.21

Bedtime Stories

12/25/08

3,681

$27.45

$7,457

$110.10

Alex Rider: Operation Stormbreaker

10/13/06

221

$0.22

$974

$0.65

The Sorcerer's Apprentice

7/14/10

3,504

$17.62

$5,028

$63.14

Race to Witch Mountain

3/13/09

3,187

$24.40

$7,657

$67.17

Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief

2/12/10

3,356

$38.66

$9,308

$88.76

Jumper

2/15/08

3,428

$33.98

$7,980

$81.17

The Spiderwick Chronicles

2/14/08

3,847

$2.38

$27.12

$4,940

$71.15

The Island

7/22/05

3,122

$12.41

$3,975

$35.26



UNKNOWN (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Next Three Days

11/19/10

2,564

$6.54

$2,552

$21.13

The A-Team

6/11/10

3,535

$25.67

$7,262

$77.22

Clash of the Titans

4/2/10

3,777

$61.24

$16,213

$163.21

Taken

1/30/09

3,183

$24.72

$7,765

$145.00

Batman Begins

6/17/05

3,858

$24.15

$48.75

$12,635

$205.09

K-19: The Widowmaker

7/19/02

2,828

$12.78

$4,518

$35.17

Orphan

7/24/09

2,750

$12.87

$4,681

$40.72

The Invasion

8/17/07

2,776

$5.95

$2,144

$15.07

Gothika

11/21/03

2,382

$19.29

$8,097

$58.95

The Interpreter

4/22/05

2,758

$22.82

$8,275

$72.52

The Bourne Identity

6/14/02

2,638

$27.12

$10,281

$121.38

The Fugitive

8/6/93

2,340

$23.76

$10,154

$183.88

Frantic

2/26/888

1101

$4.36

$3,960

$15.59



BIG MOMMAS: LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON
(20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Big Momma's House 2

1/27/06

3,261

$27.74

$8,505

$70.17

Big Momma's House

6/2/00

2,802

$25.66

$9,158

$117.48

Death at a Funeral

4/16/10

2,459

$16.22

$6,595

$42.74

College Road Trip

3/7/08

2,706

$13.60

$5,026

$45.59

Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins

2/8/08

2,387

$16.21

$6,790

$42.17

Wild Hogs

3/2/07

3287

$39.67

$12,078

$168.21

Bad Boys II

7/18/03

3,186

$46.52

$14,602

$137.26

National Security

1/17/03

2,729

$14.37

$5,266

$36.29

Bad Boys

4/7/95

2,132

$15.52

$7,280

$65.65

Lottery Ticket

8/20/10

1,973

$10.65

$5,388

$24.71

Tropic Thunder

8/13/08

3,319

$11.03

$25.81

$7,777

$110.46

Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail

2/20/09

2032

$41.03

$20,192

$90.51

Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns

3/21/08

2,006

$20.08

$10,011

$41.98

Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion

2/24/06

2,194

$30.03

$13,688

$63.26



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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