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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for August 5 - 7, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 8.4.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

$47.6

N/A

3,648

$13,048

1

2

2

The Smurfs

$22.0

-40%

3,395

$6,480

2

3

1

Cowboys and Aliens

$17.6

-52%

3,754

$4,688

2

4

New

The Change-Up

$17.4

N/A

2,913

$5,973

1

5

3

Captain America: The First Avenger

$13.0

-49%

3,620

$3,591

3

6

5

Crazy, Stupid, Love.

$12.0

-38%

3,020

$3,974

2

7

4

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2

$10.5

-52%

3,175

$3,307

4

8

6

Friends with Benefits

$4.8

-48%

2,398

$2,002

3

9

7

Horrible Bosses

$4.2

-40%

2,025

$2,074

5

10

8

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

$3.0

-45%

1,854

$1,618

6

Est. Weekend Total
$152.10

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 46%

Est. Average PTA
$4,676



COMPARISONS:

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Your Highness

4/8/11

2,769

$9.36

$3,380

$21.60

127 Hours

11/5/10

916

$11.36

$2.14

$2,333

$18.34

Eat Pray Love

8/13/10

3,082

$23.10

$7,497

$80.57

Milk

11/28/08

328

$5.00

$2.60

$7,923

$31.84

Nights in Rodanthe

9/26/08

2,704

$13.42

$4,962

$42.56

Annapolis

1/27/06

1,605

$7.68

$4,786

$17.13

Predators

7/9/10

3,476

$24.76

$9,277

$52.00

Planet of the Apes

7/27/01

3,500

$68.53

$19,581

$180.01

Alien vs. Predator: Requiem

12/25/08

2,611

$16.83

$10.06

$3,853

$41.80

Alien vs. Predator

8/13/04

3,395

$38.29

$11,279

$79.22

X-Men: First Class

6/3/11

3,641

$55.10

$15,134

$148.00

King Kong

12/16/05

3,568

$16.05

$50.13

$14,050

$218.05

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

12/19/03

3,703

$51.47

$72.62

$19,614

$377.03

The Lord of the Rings The Two Towers

12/20/02

3,622

$40.04

$61.50

$16,980

$340.48



THE CHANGE-UP (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Horrible Bosses

7/8/11

3,040

$28.30

$9,310

$96.60

Paul

3/18/11

2,802

$13.04

$4,655

$36.94

The Switch

8/20/10

2,012

$8.44

$4,193

$27.76

Up in the Air

12/25/09

1,895

$12.76

$11.27

$5,947

$83.81

Couples Retreat

10/9/09

3,000

$34.29

$11,429

$108.96

Extract

9/4/09

1,611

$4.34

$2,694

$10.82

The Proposal

6/19/09

3,056

$33.63

$11,004

$159.17

Juno

12/5/07

1,019

$15.38

$10.63

$10,436

$142.11

Just Friends

11/25/05

2,505

$4.05

$9.19

$3,669

$32.60

Waiting...

10/7/05

1,652

$6.02

$3,645

$15.61

National Lampoon's Van Wilder

4/5/02

2,022

$7.30

$3,612

$21.01

17 Again

4/17/09

3,255

$23.72

$7,288

$64.17

13 Going on 30

4/23/04

3,438

$21.05

$6,124

$56.04

Freaky Friday

8/8/03

2,954

$10.90

$22.20

$7,516

$110.22

The Hot Chick

12/13/02

2,217

$7.40

$3,338

$33.86

Big

6/3/88

1,132

$8.22

$7,258

$114.97



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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