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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for August 26 - 28, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 8.25.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

1

The Help

$15.2

-24%

2,778

$5,472

3

2

New

Don't Be Afraid of the Dark

$11.8

N/A

2,760

$4,275

1

3

New

Our Idiot Brother

$10.3

N/A

2,555

$4,031

1

4

New

Colombiana

$9.4

N/A

2,614

$3,596

1

5

2

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

$9.2

-43%

3,374

$2,727

4

6

3

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World

$6.8

-42%

3,305

$2,057

2

7

6

The Smurfs

$5.0

-38%

2,861

$1,748

5

8

4

Conan the Barbarian

$4.8

-52%

3,015

$1,592

2

9

5

Fright Night

$4.2

-45%

3,114

$1,349

2

10

7

Final Destination 5

$3.7

-52%

2,085

$1,775

3

Est. Weekend Total
$80.40

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 42%

Est. Average PTA
$2,869



COMPARISONS:

DONíT BE AFRAID OF THE DARK (FilmDistrict)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Mad Money

1/18/08

2,470

$7.74

$3,132

$20.67

Thank You For Smoking

4/14/06

1,015

$7.05

$4.49

$4,425

$24.79

First Daughter

9/24/04

2,260

$4.00

$1,771

$9.06

Abandon

10/18/02

2,341

$5.06

$2,163

$10.72

The Road

11/25/09

111

$1.50

$13,534

$8.11

Traitor

8/27/08

2,054

$1.50

$7.87

$3,831

$23.53

Splice

6/4/10

2,450

$7.39

$3,014

$17.02

The Orphanage

12/28/07

707

$1.14

$2.02

$2,851

$7.16

Pan's Labyrinth

1/12/07

609

$5.40

$4.50

$7,393

$37.63

Hellboy II: The Golden Army

7/11/08

3,204

$34.54

$10,780

$75.75

Hellboy

4/2/04

3,028

$23.17

$7,653

$59.04

Darkness

12/24/04

1,700

$6.16

$3,625

$22.16

Wes Craven Presents: They

11/29/02

1,615

$2.41

$5.14

$3,185

$12.69

The Others

8/10/01

1,678

$14.09

$8,397

$96.08



OUR IDIOT BROTHER (The Weinstein Company)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

How Do You Know

12/17/10

2,483

$7.48

$3,014

$30.21

Dinner for Schmucks

7/30/10

2,911

$23.53

$8,082

$73.03

I Love You, Man

3/20/09

2,711

$17.18

$6,570

$71.14

Role Models

11/7/08

2,792

$19.17

$6,865

$67.30

Over Her Dead Body

2/1/08

1,977

$4.03

$2,036

$7.56

Knocked Up

6/1/07

2,871

$30.69

$10,690

$146.28

The 40 Year Old Virgin

8/19/05

2,845

$21.42

$7,530

$109.24

Zack and Miri Make a Porno

10/31/08

2,735

$10.06

$3,680

$31.45

Your Highness

4/8/11

2,769

$9.36

$3,380

$21.60

(500) Days of Summer

7/17/09

1,048

$14.93

$2.97

$2,832

$32.39

The Ex

5/11/07

1009

$1.39

$1,381

$3.09

Little Miss Sunshine

7/26/06

1,430

$15.51

$7.37

$5,155

$59.89



COLOMBIANA (Sony/Tristar Pictures)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Losers

4/23/10

2,936

$9.41

$3,204

$23.59

Avatar

12/18/09

3,452

$77.03

$22,313

$738.39

Star Trek

5/8/09

3,849

$79.20

$20,578

$257.70

From Paris with Love

2/5/10

2,722

$8.16

$2,997

$23.98

Taken

1/30/09

3,183

$24.72

$7,765

$145.00

The Transporter

10/11/02

2,573

$9.11

$3,540

$25.30

The Mechanic

1/28/11

2,703

$11.42

$4,226

$29.12

Hanna 4/8/11 2,535 $12.37 $4,880 $40.24


Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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