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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for August 12 - 14, 2011
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 8.11.11)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

1

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

$27.4

-50%

3,691

$7,423

2

2

New

Final Destination 5

$25.0

N/A

3,155

$7,924

1

3

New

30 Minutes or Less

$20.6

N/A

2,888

$7,341

1

4

New

The Help

$17.5

N/A

2,534

$6,906

1

5

2

The Smurfs

$12.0

-42%

3,350

$3,582

3

6

New

Glee: The 3D Concert Movie

$8.2

N/A

2,040

$4,020

1

7

7

Crazy, Stupid, Love.

$7.8

-35%

2,950

$2,960

3

8

3

Cowboys and Aliens

$7.5

-52%

3,350

$2,271

3

9

5

Captain America: The First Avenger

$7.0

-46%

3,200

$2,188

4

10

4

The Change-Up

$7.0

-48%

2,913

$2,403

2

Est. Weekend Total
$140.20

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 46%

Est. Average PTA
$4,691



COMPARISONS:

FINAL DESTINATION 5 (New Line/WB)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Final Destination

8/29/09

3,121

$27.41

$8,782

$66.47

Final Destination 3

2/10/06

2,880

$19.17

$6,657

$54.10

Final Destination 2

1/31/03

2,834

$16.02

$5,652

$46.90

Final Destination

3/17/00

2,585

$10.02

$3,876

$53.30



30 MINUTES OR LESS (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Your Highness

4/8/11

2,769

$9.36

$3,380

$21.60

Land of the Lost

6/5/09

3,521

$18.84

$5,350

$69.46

Observe and Report

4/10/09

2,727

$11.02

$4,040

$23.62

Tropic Thunder

8/13/08

3,319

$11.03

$25.81

$7,777

$110.46

Pineapple Express

8/6/08

3,072

$18.07

$23.25

$7,567

$87.34

The Social Network

10/1/10

2,771

$22.45

$8,100

$96.96

Zombieland

10/2/09

3,036

$24.73

$8,147

$75.59

Just Go With It

2/11/11

3,548

$30.51

$8,601

$103.03

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry

7/20/07

3,495

$34.23

$9,795

$119.68



THE HELP (DreamWorks/Disney)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Easy A

9/17/10

2,856

$17.73

$6,209

$58.40

The House Bunny

8/22/08

2,714

$14.53

$5,355

$46.11

The Rocker

8/20/08

2,784

$2.64

$947

$6.41

Superbad

8/17/07

2,948

$33.05

$11,212

$121.46

Doubt

12/12/08

1,267

$3.15

$5.34

$4,214

$33.42

The Secret Life of Bees

10/17/08

1,591

$10.53

$6,617

$37.77

Bobby

11/17/06

1,667

$1.24

$4.86

$2,914

$11.20

The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood

6/7/02

2,507

$16.17

$6,449

$69.59

Fried Green Tomatoes

1/24/92

673

$2.54

$5.24

$7,786

$81.20

Steel Magnolias

11/17/89

480

$5.43

$11,313

$81.00

Secretariat

10/8/10

3,072

$12.69

$4,132

$59.60



GLEE: THE 3D CONCERT MOVIE (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Fame

9/25/09

3,096

$10.01

$3,234

$22.45

Justin Bieber: Never Say Never

2/11/11

3,105

$29.15

$9,505

$73.01

Michael Jackson's This Is It

10/28/09

3,481

$11.21

$23.23

$6,675

$72.09

Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience

2/27/09

1,271

$12.50

$9,843

$19.16

Miley Cyrus/Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds

2/1/08

683

$31.12

$45,561

$65.20

High School Musical 3: Senior Year

10/24/08

3,623

$42.03

$11,601

$90.56

From Justin to Kelly

6/20/03

2,001

$2.72

$2.72

$1,357

The Real Cancun

4/25/03

2,261

$2.11

$2.11

$933



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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