Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for March 12 - 14, 2010
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 3.11.10)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

1

Alice in Wonderland

$42.5

-63%

3,730

$11,394

2

2

New

Green Zone

$19.5

N/A

2,980

$6,460

1

3

New

She's Out of My League

$12.6

N/A

2,750

$4,263

1

4

New

Remember Me

$11.5

N/A

1,940

$5,199

1

5

3

Shutter Island

$8.1

-39%

2,850

$2,414

4

6

New

Our Family Wedding

$7.3

N/A

1,620

$4,548

1

7

2

Brooklyn's Finest

$7.1

-47%

1,936

$3,662

2

8

5

Avatar

$5.8

-30%

1,850

$3,376

13

9

4

Cop Out

$5.0

-46%

2,950

$1,735

3

10

6

The Crazies

$3.7

-48%

2,200

$1,568

3

Est. Weekend Total
$123.00

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 46%

Est. Average PTA
$4,462



COMPARISONS:

GREEN ZONE (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Invictus

12/11/09

2,125

$8.61

$4,052

$37.11

The Informant!

9/18/09

2,505

$10.46

$4,177

$33.32

The Bourne Ultimatum

83/07

3,660

$69.28

$18,930

$227.47

The Bourne Supremacy

7/23/04

3,165

$52.52

$16,595

$170.45

The Good Shepherd

12/22/06

2,215

$10.03

$4,530

$59.91

The Departed

10/6/06

3,017

$26.89

$8,912

$133.31

Syriana

11/25/05

1,752

$1.49

$11.74

$6,699

$50.82

United 93

4/28/06

1,795

$11.48

$6,395

$31.84

The Hurt Locker

6/26/09

523

$4.85

$1.91

$3,653

$12.67

Rendition

10/19/07

2,250

$4.06

$1,804

$9.66

The Kingdom

9/28/07

2,793

$17.13

$6,135

$47.47

Invictus

12/11/09

2,125

$8.61

$4,052

$37.11

The Informant!

9/18/09

2,505

$10.46

$4,177

$33.32



SHEíS OUT OF MY LEAGUE (Paramount/DreamWorks)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Tropic Thunder

8/13/08

3,319

$11.03

$25.81

$7,777

$110.46

Knocked Up

6/1/07

2,871

$30.69

$10,690

$146.28

Starter for Ten

2/23/07

10

$0.04

$1,857

$0.21

I Love You, Man

3/20/09

2,711

$17.18

$6,570

$71.14

Forgetting Sarah Marshall

4/18/08

2,798

$17.73

$6,335

$63.17

The Girl Next Door

4/9/04

2,148

$6.00

$2,795

$14.59

Shallow Hal

11/9/01

2,771

$23.28

$8,401

$70.83

American Pie

7/9/99

2,507

$18.71

$7,463

$101.74

There's Something About Mary

7/17/98

2,186

$4.06

$13.74

$6,285

$176.48



REMEMBER ME (Summit Entertainment)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Twilight Saga: New Moon

11/20/09

4,024

$142.84

$35,497

$296.01

Twilight

11/21/08

3,419

$69.64

$20,368

$191.41

Little Ashes

5/8/09

12

$0.73

$6,116

$0.48

Hollywoodland

9/8/06

1,548

$5.93

$3,828

$14.43

Dear John

2/5/10

2,969

$30.47

$10,262

$74.80

My Sister's Keeper

6/26/09

2,606

$12.44

$4,774

$49.20

The Notebook

6/25/04

2,303

$13.46

$5,847

$79.67

Bandslam

8/14/09

2,121

$2.23

$1,052

$5.21



OUR FAMILY WEDDING (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2

8/6/08

2,707

$10.68

$3,945

$44.08

The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants

6/3/05

2,583

$3.74

$9.83

$3,807

$38.83

Something New

2/3/06

1,265

$4.88

$3,857

$11.47

The Last King of Scotland

9/29/06

495

$3.73

$1.61

$3,252

$17.61

Phone Booth

4/4/03

2,481

$15.02

$6,054

$46.56

Panic Room

3/29/02

3,053

$30.06

$9,845

$95.31

This Christmas

11/21/07

1,858

8.38

$17.96

$9,665

$49.12

Nothing Like the Holidays

12/12/08

1,671

$3.53

$2,114

$7.50

My Big Fat Greek Wedding

8/2/02

657

$37.17

$3.00

$4,569

$241.44

Brown Sugar

10/11/02

1,372

$10.74

$7,827

$27.36

The Wood

7/16/99

1,191

$8.52

$7,154

$25.05

Roll Bounce

9/23/05

1,625

$7.57

$4,659

$17.38

Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?

10/12/07

2,011

$21.35

$10,618

$55.20

The Wedding Date

2/4/05

1,695

$11.13

$6,566

$31.59

The Wedding Planner

1/26/01

2,785

$13.51

$4,851

$60.40



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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