Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for January 8 - 10, 2010
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 1.7.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	1	Avatar	$37.00	-46%	3,422	$10,812	4
2	3	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel	$15.9	-55%	3,641	$4,367	3
3	2	Sherlock Holmes	$15.6	-58%	3,626	$4,302	3
4	New	Daybreakers	$14.1	N/A	2,523	$5,589	1
5	New	Leap Year	$11.0	N/A	2,511	$4,381	1
6	4	It's Complicated	$10.5	-47%	2,954	$3,555	3
7	5	The Blind Side	$7.0	-41%	2,880	$2,431	8
8	6	Up in the Air	$6.7	-378%	2,218	$3,021	6
9	New	Youth in Revolt	$5.7	N/A	1,873	$3,043	1
10	7	The Princess and the Frog	$4.5	-53%	2,620	$1,718	6
			Est. Weekend Total $128.00	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 48%		Est. Average PTA $4,322

COMPARISONS:

DAYBREAKERS (Lionsgate)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Lord of War	9/16/05	2,814		$9.39	$3,337	$23.28
Assault on Precinct 13	1/21/05	2,297	$1.54	$6.50	$2,831	$19.98
Taking Lives	3/19/04	2,705		$11.46	$4,236	$32.68
Gattaca	10/24/97	1,279		$4.32	$3,378	$12.35
American Dreamz	4/21/06	1,500		$3.67	$2,445	$7.31
Inside Man	3/24/06	2818		$28.95	$10,275	$88.63
xXx: State of the Union	4/29/05	3,480		$12.71	$3,653	$26.08
Once Upon a Time in Mexico	9/12/03	3,282		$23.42	$7,137	$55.85
Shadow of the Vampire	1/26/01	513	$0.57	$1.89	$3,682	$8.28
Underworld: Rise of the Lycans	1/23/09	2,942		$20.83	$7,080	$45.80
Underworld: Evolution	1/20/06	3,207		$26.86	$8,374	$62.32
Underworld	9/19/03	2,915		$21.75	$7,462	$51.48
Resident Evil	3/15/02	2,528		$17.71	$7,004	$39.53
Surrogates	9/25/09	2,951		$14.90	$5,050	$38.54
The Descent	8/4/06	2,095		$8.91	$4,254	$26.02

LEAP YEAR (Universal)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Julie & Julia	8/7/09	2,354		$20.03	$8,508	$94.13
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian	5/22/09	4,096		$54.17	$13,226	$177.05
Sunshine Cleaning	3/13/09	479	$2.90	$1.81	$3,773	$12.06
Doubt	12/12/08	1,267	$3.15	$5.34	$4,214	$33.42
Enchanted	11/21/07	3,730	14.619	$34.44	$9,233	$127.71
Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day	3/7/08	535		$2.49	$4,656	$13.31
The Wedding Date	2/4/05	1,695		$11.13	$6,566	$31.59
Watchmen	3/6/09	3,611		$55.21	$15,291	$107.51
Brideshead Revisited	7/25/08	33		$0.33	$10,291	$6.41
The Lookout	3/30/07	955		$2.02	$2,113	$4.59
Imagine Me and You	1/27/06	8		$0.05	$6,488	$0.67
Chasing Liberty	1/9/04	2,400		$6.08	$2,534	$12.19
Love Happens	9/18/09	1,898		$8.06	$4,245	$22.97
Made of Honor	5/2/08	2,729		$14.76	$5,407	$46.01
Definitely, Maybe	2/14/08	2,204	$3.12	$9.76	$4,430	$31.40

YOUTH IN REVOLT (Dimension Films)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Year One	6/19/09	3,022		$19.61	$6,489	$43.34
Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist	10/3/08	2,421		$11.31	$4,672	$31.49
Juno	12/5/07	1,019	$15.38	$10.63	$10,436	$142.11
Superbad	8/17/07	2,948		$33.05	$11,212	$121.46
The Good Girl	8/30/02	667	$3.74	$3.80	$5,704	$13.89
Adventureland	4/3/09	1,862		$5.72	$3,073	$16.04
Charlie Bartlett	2/22/08	1,122		$1.84	$1,637	$3.95
Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle	7/30/04	2,135		$5.48	$2,567	$18.23
The Girl Next Door	4/9/04	2,148		$6.00	$2,795	$14.59
The Rules of Attraction	10/11/02	1,437		$2.53	$1,762	$6.53