Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for January 29 - 31, 2010
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 1.28.10)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	1	Avatar	$27.5	-21%	3,074	$8,956	7
2	New	Edge of Darkness	$20.7	N/A	3,066	$6,751	1
3	New	When in Rome	$13.4	N/A	2,456	$5,456	1
4	3	The Book of Eli	$8.5	-46%	3,075	$2,764	3
5	4	Tooth Fairy	$8.2	-42%	3,345	$2,451	2
6	2	Legion	$6.5	-63%	2,476	$2,625	2
7	5	The Lovely Bones	$4.6	-45%	2,638	$1,878	6
8	6	Sherlock Holmes	$4.0	-40%	2,250	$1,744	6
9	7	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel	$3.8	-37%	2,526	$1,504	6
10	8	Extraordinary Measures	$3.7	-38%	2,549	$1,452	2
			Est. Weekend Total $100.40	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 47%		Est. Average PTA $3,523

COMPARISONS:

EDGE OF DARKNESS (Warner Bros.)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Signs	8/2/02	3,264		$60.12	$18,418	$225.77
We Were Soldiers	3/1/02	3,143		$20.21	$6,431	$78.12
The Patriot	6/30/00	3,061	$9.32	$22.41	$7,321	$113.30
Payback	2/5/99	2,720		$21.22	$7,801	$81.52
Conspiracy Theory	8/8/97	2,806		$19.31	$6,882	$76.12
Ransom	11/8/96	2,676		$34.22	$12,788	$136.49
Taken	1/30/09	3,183		$24.72	$7,765	$145.00
State of Play	4/17/09	2,803		$14.07	$5,020	$37.02
The International	2/13/09	2,364		$9.33	$3,947	$25.45
Michael Clayton	10/5/07	2,511	$1.08	$10.37	$4,131	$49.02
Casino Royale	11/17/06	3,434		$40.83	$11,891	$167.37
Beyond Borders	10/25/03	1,798		$2.08	$1,155	$4.43
The Departed	10/6/06	3,017		$26.89	$8,912	$133.31

WHEN IN ROME (Touchstone Pictures)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Couples Retreat	10/9/09	3,000		$34.29	$11,429	$108.96
Forgetting Sarah Marshall	4/18/08	2,798		$17.73	$6,335	$63.17
Pulse	8/11/06	2,323		$8.20	$3,532	$20.26
Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!	1/23/04	2,711		$7.32	$2,700	$16.96
Just Like Heaven	9/16/05	3,508		$16.41	$4,678	$43.62
Old Dogs	11/27/09	3,425		$16.89	$4,933	$48.00
The Brothers Solomon	9/7/07	700		$0.51	$727	$0.90
Let's Go To Prison	11/17/06	1,495		$2.22	$1,485	$5.53
Confessions of a Shopaholic	2/13/09	2,507		$15.07	$6,010	$44.28
Leap Year	1/8/10	2,511		$9.20	$3,665	$22.98
Under the Tuscan Sun	9/26/03	1,226		$9.75	$7,953	$43.60
My Life in Ruins	6/5/09	1,164		$3.22	$2,769	$8.61