Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for January 22 - 24, 2010
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 1.21.10)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	1	Avatar	$29.5	-33%	3,141	$9,392	6
2	New	Tooth Fairy	$19.3	N/A	3,344	$5,772	1
3	New	Legion	$17.4	N/A	2,476	$7,027	1
4	2	The Book of Eli	$15.5	-53%	3,111	$4,982	2
5	3	The Lovely Bones	$9.3	-45%	2,563	$3,629	5
6	New	Extraordinary Measures	$8.5	N/A	2,549	$3,335	1
7	4	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel	$6.6	-43%	2,973	$2,220	5
8	6	The Spy Next Door	$5.4	-45%	2,924	$1,847	2
9	5	Sherlock Holmes	$5.2	-47%	2,670	$1,948	5
10	7	It's Complicated	$4.8	-41%	2,294	$2,092	5
			Est. Weekend Total $121.50	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 43%		Est. Average PTA $4,224

COMPARISONS:

LEGION (Screen Gems/Sony)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Pandorum	9/25/09	2,506	$4.42	$1,765	$10.33
G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra	8/7/09	4,007	$54.71	$13,654	$150.20
Vantage Point	2/22/08	3,149	$22.87	$7,264	$72.27
The Da Vinci Code	5/19/06	3,735	$77.07	$20,635	$217.54
Identity	4/25/03	2,733	$16.23	$5,937	$51.48
Resident Evil: Extinction	9/21/07	2,828	$23.68	$8,373	$50.65
Resident Evil: Apocalypse	9/10/04	3,284	$23.04	$7,015	$50.74
Resident Evil	3/15/02	2,528	$17.71	$7,004	$39.53
Underworld: Rise of the Lycans	1/23/09	2,942	$20.83	$7,080	$45.80
Underworld: Evolution	1/20/06	3,207	$26.86	$8,374	$62.32
Underworld	9/19/03	2,915	$21.75	$7,462	$51.48
Silent Hill	4/21/06	2,926	$20.15	$6,887	$46.98
Doom	10/21/05	3,044	$15.49	$5,088	$27.62
The Prophecy	9/1/95	1,663	$7.51	$4,516	$16.06

TOOTH FAIRY (20^th Century Fox)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Race to Witch Mountain	3/13/09	3,187	$24.40	$7,657	$67.17
Get Smart	6/20/08	3,911	$38.68	$9,891	$130.32
The Game Plan	9/28/07	3,103	$22.95	$7,396	$90.65
Gridiron Gang	9/15/06	3,504	$14.41	$4,114	$38.43
Be Cool	3/4/05	3,216	$23.45	$7,292	$55.81
Are We There Yet?	1/21/05	2,709	$18.58	$6,857	$82.30
Big Momma's House 2	1/27/06	3,261	$27.74	$8,505	$70.17
Big Momma's House	6/2/00	2,802	$25.66	$9,158	$117.48
Elf	11/7/03	3,337	$31.11	$9,324	$172.70
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause	11/3/06	3,458	$19.50	$5,640	$84.50
The Santa Clause 2	11/1/02	3,350	$29.01	$8,659	$139.14
The Santa Clause	11/11/94	2,183	$19.32	$8,850	$144.83
Fred Claus	11/9/07	3,604	$18.52	$5,139	$71.89
Race to Witch Mountain	3/13/09	3,187	$24.40	$7,657	$67.17

EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES (CBS Films)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Firewall	2/10/06	2,840		$13.64	$4,801	$48.75
Hollywood Homicide	6/13/03	2,840		$11.11	$3,914	$30.21
K-19: The Widowmaker	7/19/02	2,828		$12.78	$4,518	$35.17
Random Hearts	10/8/99	2,697		$13.01	$4,824	$31.05
Six Days, Seven Nights	6/12/98	2,550		$16.49	$6,467	$74.31
Inkheart	1/23/09	2,655		$7.60	$2,863	$17.30
Crash	5/6/05	1,864		$9.11	$4,886	$54.56
The Quiet American	2/14/03	157	$1.69	$1.24	$7,881	$12.99
Flash of Genius	10/3/08	1,075		$2.25	$2,050	$4.44
Malice	10/1/93	1,431		$9.23	$6,450	$46.04