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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for February 5 - 7, 2010
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (update 2.4.10)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

1

Avatar

$23.7

-24%

3,000

$7,900

8

2

New

Dear John

$23.0

N/A

2,969

$7,747

1

3

New

From Paris With Love

$14.1

N/A

2,722

$5,180

1

4

2

Edge of Darkness

$9.0

-48%

3,066

$2,935

2

5

3

When in Rome

$7.2

-42%

2,445

$2,932

2

6

4

Tooth Fairy

$7.0

-30%

3,218

$2,175

3

7

14

Crazy Heart

$4.7

+52%

819

$5,739

3

8

5

The Book of Eli

$4.6

-48%

2,820

$1,631

4

9

6

Legion

$3.2

-55%

2,339

$1,368

3

10

8

Sherlock Holmes

$2.5

-45%

1,805

$1,385

7

Est. Weekend Total
$99.00

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 29%

Est. Average PTA
$3,899



COMPARISONS:

DEAR JOHN (Screen Gems)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Fighting

4/24/09

2,309

$11.02

$4,775

$23.09

Step Up

8/11/06

2,467

$20.66

$8,374

$65.33

Mamma Mia!

7/18/08

2,976

$27.75

$9,325

$144.13

The Time Traveller's Wife

8/14/09

2,988

$18.62

$6,233

$63.41

My Sister's Keeper

6/26/09

2,606

$12.44

$4,774

$49.20

Nights in Rodanthe

9/26/08

2,704

$13.42

$4,962

$42.56

The Notebook

6/25/04

2,303

$13.46

$5,847

$79.67

A Walk To Remember

1/25/02

2,411

$12.18

$5,051

$41.23

Message In A Bottle

2/12/99

2,538

$16.71

$6,584

$52.80

Chocolat

1/19/01

658

$9.72

$3.09

$4,701

$71.31

The Cider House Rules

1/7/00

816

$5.14

$3.08

$3,775

$57.54

The Lake House

6/16/06

2,645

$13.62

$5,148

$52.33



FROM PARIS WITH LOVE (Lionsgate)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Taking of Pelham 123

6/12/09

3,074

$23.37

$7,603

$65.45

Swordfish

6/8/01

2,678

$18.14

$6,776

$69.72

Face/Off

6/27/97

2,621

$23.39

$8,924

$112.28

Broken Arrow

2/9/96

2,388

$15.58

$6,524

$70.65

Pulp Fiction

10/14/94

1,338

$9.31

$6,958

$107.93

August Rush

11/17/07

2,310

$9.42

$4,079

$31.66

Mission: Impossible 3

5/5/06

4,054

$47.74

$11,777

$133.50

Match Point

12/30/05

304

$0.91

$2.71

$8,912

$23.09

Alexander

11/26/04

2,445

$8.15

$13.69

$5,598

$34.29

Vanity Fair

9/3/04

1,051

$1.14

$6.27

$5,465

$16.12

Taken

1/30/09

3,183

$24.72

$7,765

$145.00

Transporter 3

11/26/08

2,626

$6.17

$12.06

$4,594

$31.72

The Transporter 2

9/2/05

3,303

$20.10

$6,087

$43.10

The Transporter

10/11/02

2,573

$9.11

$3,540

$25.30



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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