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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for February 12 - 15, 2010
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 2.11.10)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Valentine's Day

$41.2

N/A

3,665

$11,241

1

2

New

The Wolfman

$31.4

N/A

3,222

$9,745

1

3

New

Percy Jackson and the Olympians

$28.3

N/A

3,356

$8,433

1

4

1

Dear John

$23.5

-23%

2,975

$7,899

2

5

2

Avatar

$21.4

-6%

2,685

$7,970

9

6

3

From Paris with Love

$5.5

-33%

2,722

$2,021

2

7

5

Tooth Fairy

$5.4

-19%

2,748

$1,965

4

8

4

Edge of Darkness

$4.1

-40%

2,615

$1,568

3

9

6

When in Rome

$4.0

-28%

2,125

$1,882

3

10

8

Crazy Heart

$3.7

+3%

1,005

$3,682

4

Est. Weekend Total
$168.50

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 21%

Est. Average PTA
$5,641



COMPARISONS:

VALENTINE'S DAY (New Line/WB)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Duplicity

3/20/09

2,574

$13.97

$5,425

$40.51

Charlie Wilson's War

12/21/07

2,575

$9.66

$3,750

$66.64

Mona Lisa Smile

12/19/03

2,677

$11.53

$4,306

$62.96

America's Sweethearts

7/20/01

3,011

$30.18

$10,024

$93.61

Runaway Bride

7/30/99

3,158

$35.06

$11,102

$152.15

Pretty Woman

3/23/90

1,325

$11.28

$14.41

$8,513

50 First Dates

2/13/04

3,591

$45.11

$12,561

$120.78

He's Just Not That Into You

2/6/09

3,175

$27.79

$8,751

$93.93

Failure to Launch

3/10/06

3,057

$24.41

$7,985

$88.72

Catch and Release

1/26/07

$7.66

$4,722

$15.43

13 Going on 30

4/23/04

3,438

$21.05

$6,124

$56.04

What Happens in Vegas

5/9/08

3,215

$20.17

$6,274

$80.28

Just Married

1/10/03

2,766

$17.55

$6,345

$56.13

Made of Honor

5/2/08

2,729

$14.76

$5,407

$46.01

Love Actually

11/7/03

576

$6.89

$11,955

$59.08



THE WOLFMAN (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Mummy

5/7/99

3,210

$43.37

$13,511

$155.25

Mary Shelley's Frankenstein

11/4/94

2,177

$11.21

$5,149

$22.01

Bram Stoker's Dracula

11/13/92

2,491

$30.52

$12,252

$82.49

The Legend of Zorro

10/28/05

3,520

$16.33

$4,639

$45.36

Mask of Zorro

7/17/98

2,515

$22.53

$8,958

$93.83

Red Dragon

10/4/02

3,357

$36.54

$10,885

$93.10

Hannibal

2/9/01

3,230

$58.00

$17,958

$164.97

Silence of the Lambs

2/15/91

1,497

$1.41

$13.77

$9,198

$130.73

Hidalgo

3/5/04

3,063

$18.83

$6,147

$67.29

Jurassic Park III

7/20/01

3,434

$30.60

$50.77

$14,785

$181.17

Underworld

9/19/03

2,915

$21.75

$7,462

$51.48

Underworld: Evolution

1/20/06

3,207

$26.86

$8,374

$62.32

Underworld: Rise of the Lycans

1/23/09

2,942

$20.83

$7,080

$45.80

Blood and Chocolate

1/26/07

1,200

$2.07

$1,728

$3.53

Cursed

2/25/05

2,805

$9.63

$3,434

$19.29

An American Werewolf in Paris

12/26/97

1,728

$7.54

$4,363

$26.55



PERCY JACKSON & THE OLYMPIANS: THE LIGHTNING THIEF (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Spiderwick Chronicles

2/14/08

3,847

$2.38

$24.74

$6,431

$71.15

Bridge to Terabithia

2/16/07

3,139

$28.44

$9,091

$82.23

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone

11/16/01

3,672

$90.29

$24,590

$317.57

Eragon

12/15/06

3,020

$23.24

$7,695

$75.03

The Golden Compass

12/7/07

3,528

$25.78

$7,308

$69.25

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

5/16/08

3,929

$55.03

$14,007

$141.59

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe

12/9/05

3,616

$65.56

$18,130

$291.17

Jumper

2/15/08

3,428

$32.09

$9,362

$80.17

Hoot

5/5/06

3,018

$3.37

$1,116

$8.08



PRESIDENT'S DAY WEEKEND

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Ghost Rider

2/16/07

3,619

$52.02

$14,374

$115.80

50 First Dates

2/13/04

3,591

$45.11

$12,561

$120.90

Daredevil

2/14/03

3,471

$45.03

$12,974

$102.54

Friday the 13th (2009)

2/13/09

3,105

$43.59

$14,037

$65.00

Constantine

2/18/05

3,006

$33.62

$11,185

$75.98

Jumper

2/14/08

3,428

$32.09

$9,362

$80.17

Bridge to Terabithia

2/16/07

3,139

$28.54

$9,091

$82.27

Eight Below

2/17/06

3,066

$24.97

$8,143

$81.61

The Spiderwick Chronicles

2/14/08

3,847

$24.74

$6,431

$71.20

John Q.

2/15/02

2,466

$23.61

$9,575

$71.76

Step Up 2 the Streets

2/14/08

2,470

$22.13

$8,958

$58.02

The Wedding Singer

2/13/98

2,821

$21.92

$7,769

$80.25



Copyright 2010 Edward Douglas

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