Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for October 23 - 25, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 10.22.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Saw VI	$27.2	N/A	3,036	$8,959	1
2	3	Paranormal Activity	$20.3	+3%	1,945	$10,437	2
3	1	Where the Wild Things Are	$17.0	-49%	3,735	$4,498	2
4	New	Astro Boy	$13.2	N/A	3,014	$4,214	1
5	2	Law Abiding Citizen	$10.2	-48%	2,890	$3,806	2
6	New	Cirque du Freak: Vampire's Assistant	$9.6	N/A	2,754	$3,486	1
7	4	Couples Retreat	$9.2	-47%	3,074	$2,994	3
8	6	Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs	$5.8	-28%	2,741	$2,116	6
9	5	The Stepfather	$5.5	-50%	2,734	$2,012	2
10	7	Zombieland	$4.2	-46%	2,447	$1,716	4
			Est. Weekend Total $122.30	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 38%		Est. Average PTA $4,022

COMPARISONS:

SAW VI (Lionsgate)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Saw V	10/24/08	3,060	$30.05	$9,822	$56.75
Saw IV	10/26/07	3,183	$31.76	$9,977	$63.30
Saw III	10/27/06	3,167	$33.61	$10,613	$80.15
Saw 2	10/28/05	2,949	$31.73	$10,758	$87.03
Saw	10/29/04	2,315	$18.28	$7,895	$55.15
Freddy's Dead: Final Nightmare	9/13/91	1,862	$12.97	$6,966	$34.87
Nightmare on Elm Street 5	8/11/89	1,902	$8.12	$4,269	$21.58
Halloween: Curse of Michael Myers	9/29/95	1,679	$7.31	$4,354	$15.12
Halloween V	10/13/89	1,483	$5.09	$3,432	$11.64

ASTRO BOY (Summit Entertainment)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
TMNT	3/23/07	3,110		$24.26	$7,799	$54.15
Fly Me to the Moon	8/15/08	452		$1.90	$4,205	$12.34
Flushed Away	11/3/06	3,707		$18.81	$5,075	$64.67
9	9/9/09	1,653	4.42	$10.74	$6,466	$30.20
Coraline	2/6/09	2,299		$16.84	$7,329	$75.29
Robots	3/11/05	3,776		$36.05	$9,546	$128.19
Arthur and the Invisibles	1/12/07	2,247		$4.29	$1,911	$15.13

CIRQUE DU FREAK: THE VAMPIRE�S ASSISTANT (Universal)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Journey to the Center of the Earth	7/11/08	2,811		$21.02	$7,477	$101.70
Zathura	11/11/05	3,223		$13.43	$4,166	$28.05
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story	12/21/07	2,650		$4.17	$1,575	$18.32
American Dreamz	4/21/06	1,500		$3.67	$2,445	$7.31
In Good Company	12/31/04	1,566	$0.49	$14.28	$9,125	$45.32
About a Boy	5/17/02	1,207		$8.56	$7,090	$40.57
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events	12/17/04	3,620		$30.06	$8,304	$118.01
The Golden Compass	12/7/07	3,528		$25.78	$7,308	$69.25
Eragon	12/15/06	3,020		$23.24	$7,695	$75.03
City of Ember	10/10/08	2,022		$3.13	$1,548	$7.78
The Seeker: The Dark is Rising	10/5/07	3,141		$3.75	$1,192	$8.79

AMELIA (Fox Searchlight)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
P.S. I Love You	12/21/07	2,454		$6.48	$2,641	$53.68
The Reaping	4/6/07	2,603		$10.03	$3,851	$25.13
Freedom Writers	1/5/07	1,360		$9.41	$6,916	$36.61
The Black Dahlia	9/15/06	2,226		$10.01	$4,495	$22.67
Million Dollar Baby	12/17/04	2,010	$9.31	$12.27	$6,102	$100.42
Nights in Rodanthe	9/26/08	2,704		$13.42	$4,962	$42.56
The Hoax	4/6/07	1,069		$1.45	$1,150	$7.15
The Hunting Party	9/7/07	329	$0.19	$0.37	$1,111	$0.88
The Namesake	3/9/07	117	$1.33	$1.31	$11,169	$13.61
Vanity Fair	9/3/04	1,051	$1.14	$6.27	$5,465	$16.12
Changeling	10/24/08	1,850	0.68	$9.35	$5,055	$35.58
Cinderella Man	6/3/05	2,812		$18.32	$6,515	$61.65
The Aviator	12/17/04	1,796	$1.36	$8.63	$4,806	$102.68
Seabiscuit	7/25/03	1,987		$20.85	$10,495	$120.20