Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for October 23 - 25, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 10.22.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Saw VI

$27.2

N/A

3,036

$8,959

1

2

3

Paranormal Activity

$20.3

+3%

1,945

$10,437

2

3

1

Where the Wild Things Are

$17.0

-49%

3,735

$4,498

2

4

New

Astro Boy

$13.2

N/A

3,014

$4,214

1

5

2

Law Abiding Citizen

$10.2

-48%

2,890

$3,806

2

6

New

Cirque du Freak: Vampire's Assistant

$9.6

N/A

2,754

$3,486

1

7

4

Couples Retreat

$9.2

-47%

3,074

$2,994

3

8

6

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

$5.8

-28%

2,741

$2,116

6

9

5

The Stepfather

$5.5

-50%

2,734

$2,012

2

10

7

Zombieland

$4.2

-46%

2,447

$1,716

4

Est. Weekend Total
$122.30

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 38%

Est. Average PTA
$4,022



COMPARISONS:

SAW VI (Lionsgate)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Saw V

10/24/08

3,060

$30.05

$9,822

$56.75

Saw IV

10/26/07

3,183

$31.76

$9,977

$63.30

Saw III

10/27/06

3,167

$33.61

$10,613

$80.15

Saw 2

10/28/05

2,949

$31.73

$10,758

$87.03

Saw

10/29/04

2,315

$18.28

$7,895

$55.15

Freddy's Dead: Final Nightmare

9/13/91

1,862

$12.97

$6,966

$34.87

Nightmare on Elm Street 5

8/11/89

1,902

$8.12

$4,269

$21.58

Halloween: Curse of Michael Myers

9/29/95

1,679

$7.31

$4,354

$15.12

Halloween V

10/13/89

1,483

$5.09

$3,432

$11.64



ASTRO BOY (Summit Entertainment)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

TMNT

3/23/07

3,110

$24.26

$7,799

$54.15

Fly Me to the Moon

8/15/08

452

$1.90

$4,205

$12.34

Flushed Away

11/3/06

3,707

$18.81

$5,075

$64.67

9

9/9/09

1,653

4.42

$10.74

$6,466

$30.20

Coraline

2/6/09

2,299

$16.84

$7,329

$75.29

Robots

3/11/05

3,776

$36.05

$9,546

$128.19

Arthur and the Invisibles

1/12/07

2,247

$4.29

$1,911

$15.13



CIRQUE DU FREAK: THE VAMPIRE’S ASSISTANT (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Journey to the Center of the Earth

7/11/08

2,811

$21.02

$7,477

$101.70

Zathura

11/11/05

3,223

$13.43

$4,166

$28.05

Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story

12/21/07

2,650

$4.17

$1,575

$18.32

American Dreamz

4/21/06

1,500

$3.67

$2,445

$7.31

In Good Company

12/31/04

1,566

$0.49

$14.28

$9,125

$45.32

About a Boy

5/17/02

1,207

$8.56

$7,090

$40.57

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

12/17/04

3,620

$30.06

$8,304

$118.01

The Golden Compass

12/7/07

3,528

$25.78

$7,308

$69.25

Eragon

12/15/06

3,020

$23.24

$7,695

$75.03

City of Ember

10/10/08

2,022

$3.13

$1,548

$7.78

The Seeker: The Dark is Rising

10/5/07

3,141

$3.75

$1,192

$8.79



AMELIA (Fox Searchlight)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

P.S. I Love You

12/21/07

2,454

$6.48

$2,641

$53.68

The Reaping

4/6/07

2,603

$10.03

$3,851

$25.13

Freedom Writers

1/5/07

1,360

$9.41

$6,916

$36.61

The Black Dahlia

9/15/06

2,226

$10.01

$4,495

$22.67

Million Dollar Baby

12/17/04

2,010

$9.31

$12.27

$6,102

$100.42

Nights in Rodanthe

9/26/08

2,704

$13.42

$4,962

$42.56

The Hoax

4/6/07

1,069

$1.45

$1,150

$7.15

The Hunting Party

9/7/07

329

$0.19

$0.37

$1,111

$0.88

The Namesake

3/9/07

117

$1.33

$1.31

$11,169

$13.61

Vanity Fair

9/3/04

1,051

$1.14

$6.27

$5,465

$16.12

Changeling

10/24/08

1,850

0.68

$9.35

$5,055

$35.58

Cinderella Man

6/3/05

2,812

$18.32

$6,515

$61.65

The Aviator

12/17/04

1,796

$1.36

$8.63

$4,806

$102.68

Seabiscuit

7/25/03

1,987

$20.85

$10,495

$120.20


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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