Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for October 2 - 4, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 10.1.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Zombieland

$22.4

N/A

3,050

$7,378

1

2

1

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

$15.5

-36%

2,977

$5,207

3

3

New

Toy Story 3D

$12.5

N/A

1,745

$7,163

1

4

2

Surrogates

$7.6

-49%

2,951

$2,575

2

5

New

Whip It

$6.6

N/A

1,720

$3,837

1

6

3

Fame

$5.3

-47%

3,096

$1,708

2

7

New

The Invention of Lying

$5.0

N/A

1,707

$2,929

1

8

23

Capitalism: A Love Story

$4.9

2500%

962

$5,094

2

9

5

The Informant!

$4.3

-37%

2,425

$1,773

3

10

6

Love Happens

$2.4

-43%

1,898

$1,249

3

Est. Weekend Total
$86.50

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 40%

Est. Average PTA
$3,538



COMPARISONS:

ZOMBIELAND (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Shaun of the Dead

9/24/04

607

$3.33

$5,487

$13.46

Dawn of the Dead

3/19/04

2,745

$26.72

$9,735

$58.89

28 Days Later

6/27/03

1,260

$10.06

$10.06

$7,985

Semi-Pro

2/29/08

3,121

$15.08

$4,830

$33.47

Prairie Home Companion, A

6/9/06

760

$4.57

$6,008

North Country

10/21/05

2,555

$6.42

$2,514

$18.32

After the Sunset

11/12/04

2,819

$11.10

$3,938

$28.33

Adventureland

4/3/09

1,862

$5.72

$3,073

$16.04

The Squid and the Whale

10/7/05

4

$0.13

$32,461

$7.07

The House Bunny

8/22/08

2,714

$14.53

$5,355

$46.11

Superbad

8/17/07

2,948

$33.05

$11,212

$121.46

30 Days of Night

10/19/07

2,855

$15.95

$5,587

$39.57



WHIP IT (Fox Searchlight)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Juno

12/5/07

1,019

$15.38

$10.63

$10,436

$142.11

He's Just Not That Into You

2/6/09

3,175

$27.79

$8,751

$93.93

Lucky You

5/4/07

2,525

$2.71

$1,073

$5.76

Music & Lyrics

2/14/07

2,955

$13.62

$4,610

$50.57

Fever Pitch

4/8/05

3,267

$12.40

$3,796

$42.07

Duplex

9/26/03

2,189

$4.62

$2,111

$9.61

Roll Bounce

9/23/05

1,625

$7.57

$4,659

$17.38

Drumline

12/13/02

1,836

$12.61

$6,868

$54.49

Rollerball

2/8/02

2,762

$9.01

$3,263

$18.99

Bring it On

8/25/00

2,380

$17.36

$7,294

$68.25

Waitress

5/2/07

510

$2.50

$3.08

$6,031

$19.10



THE INVENTION OF LYING (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Ghost Town

9/19/08

1,505

$5.01

$3,330

$13.25

Stardust

8/10/07

2,540

$9.17

$3,610

$38.63

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

5/22/09

4,096

$54.17

$13,226

$177.05

Night at the Museum

12/22/06

3,685

$30.43

$8,259

$250.86

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past

5/1/09

3,175

$15.41

$4,854

$55.25

Catch and Release

1/26/07

$7.66

$4,722

$15.43

13 Going on 30

4/23/04

3,438

$21.05

$6,124

$56.04

Strange Wilderness

2/1/08

1,208

$3.00

$2,485

$6.56

Superbad

8/17/07

2,948

$33.05

$11,212

$121.46

Accepted

8/18/06

2,914

$10.02

$3,440

$36.58

Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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