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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for November 6 - 8, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 11.5.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Disney's A Christmas Carol

$37.4

N/A

3,683

$10,100

1

2

New

The Fourth Kind

$13.5

N/A

2,529

$5,338

1

3

New

Men Who Stare at Goats

$12.2

N/A

2,443

$4,994

1

4

1

Michael Jackson's This Is It

$11.8

-49%

3,481

$3,390

2

5

2

Paranormal Activity

$11.0

-34%

2,558

$4,300

4

6

New

The Box

$7.3

N/A

2,635

$2,770

1

7

3

Law Abiding Citizen

$4.2

-43%

2,474

$1,698

4

8

4

Couples Retreat

$3.7

-42%

2,846

$1,300

5

9

5

Where the Wild Things Are

$2.8

-52%

2,756

$1,016

4

10

6

Saw VI

$2.3

-57%

2,091

$1,100

3

Est. Weekend Total
$106.20

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 46%

Est. Average PTA
$3,278



COMPARISONS:

DISNEYS A CHRISTMAS CAROL (Disney)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Polar Express

11/12/04

3,650

$7.31

$23.32

$6,390

$162.75

Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who

3/14/08

3,954

$45.01

$11,384

$154.53

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

12/17/04

3,620

$30.06

$8,304

$118.01

Dr. Seuss' How The Grinch Stole Christmas

11/17/00

3,127

$55.08

$17,614

$260.03

Yes Man

12/19/08

3,434

$18.28

$5,318

$97.69

The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause

11/3/06

3,458

$19.50

$5,640

$84.50

The Santa Clause 2

11/1/02

3,350

$29.01

$8,659

$139.14

The Santa Clause

11/11/94

2,183

$19.32

$8,850

$144.83

Fred Claus

11/9/07

3,604

$18.52

$5,139

$71.89

Elf

11/7/03

3,337

$31.11

$9,324

$172.70

Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat

11/21/03

3,464

$38.33

$11,065

$100.45

Beowulf

11/16/07

3,153

$27.52

$8,727

$82.20

Bedtime Stories

12/25/08

3,681

$27.45

$7,457

$110.10



THE MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS (Overture)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Burn After Reading

9/12/08

2,651

$19.13

$7,215

$60.36

Leatherheads

4/4/08

2,769

$12.68

$4,580

$31.23

Syriana

11/25/05

1,752

$1.49

$11.74

$6,699

$50.82

Good Night, and Good Luck

10/7/05

657

7.904

$3.07

$4,667

$54.60

Intolerable Cruelty

10/10/03

2,564

$12.53

$4,885

$35.10

Michael Clayton

10/5/07

2,511

$1.08

$10.37

$4,131

$49.02

O Brother, Where Art Thou?

2/2/01

809

$13.38

$3.65

$4,512

$45.51

Three Kings

10/1/99

2,942

 

$15.85

$5,387

$60.65

Down With Love

5/16/03

2,123

$0.06

$7.00

$3,298

$20.30

The Big Lebowski

3/6/98

1,207

$5.53

$4,582

$17.45

Jarhead

11/4/05

2,411

$27.73

$11,500

$62.65



THE FOURTH KIND (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

A Perfect Getaway

8/7/09

2,159

$5.95

$2,755

$15.52

Resident Evil: Extinction

9/21/07

2,828

$23.68

$8,373

$50.65

Resident Evil: Apocalypse

9/10/04

3,284

$23.04

$7,015

$50.74

Resident Evil

3/15/02

2,528

$17.71

$7,004

$39.53

White Noise

1/7/05

2,261

$24.11

$10,665

$55.87

The Strangers

5/30/08

2,467

$21.00

$8,512

$52.53

The Blair Witch Project

7/30/99

1,101

$6.93

$29.21

$26,530

$140.53

The Grudge

10/22/04

3,245

$39.13

$12,058

$110.18

Shutter

3/12/08

2,753

$10.45

$3,795

$25.93

The Return

11/10/06

1,986

$4.48

$2,258

$7.74



THE BOX (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

My Sister's Keeper

6/26/09

2,606

$12.44

$4,774

$49.20

What Happens in Vegas

5/9/08

3,215

$20.17

$6,274

$80.28

The Holiday

12/8/06

2,610

$12.78

$4,896

$63.22

In Her Shoes

10/7/05

2,808

$10.02

$3,568

$32.88

Southland Tales

11/14/07

63

$0.12

$1,959

$0.28

Domino

10/14/05

2,223

$4.67

$2,101

$10.14

Donnie Darko

10/26/01

58

$0.11

$1,905

$1.27

I Am Legend

12/14/07

3,606

$77.21

$21,412

$256.39

A Stir of Echoes

9/10/99

1,888

$5.81

$3,077

$21.13


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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