Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for November 25 - 29, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 11.24.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

3-Day Weekend (in millions)

5-Day Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average (3-Day)

Week

1

1

The Twilight Saga: New Moon

$49.7

$67.8

-65%

4,024

$12,351

2

2

New

Old Dogs

$25.6

$34.5

N/A

3,425

$7,474

1

3

2

The Blind Side

$21.5

$28.3

-37%

3,140

$6,847

2

4

3

2012

$14.5

$20.6

-45%

3,444

$4,210

3

5

4

Disney's A Christmas Carol

$14.0

$18.5

14%

3,013

$4,647

4

6

5

Planet 51

$12.8

$17.3

5%

3,035

$4,217

2

7

New

Ninja Assassin

$11.6

$17.6

N/A

2,703

$4,292

1

8

6

Precious

$9.8

$13.8

-10%

663

$14,781

4

9

24

The Fantastic Mr. Fox

$9.6

$13.2

4673%

2,033

$4,722

3

10

7

Men Who Stare at Goats

$1.5

$2.4

-47%

1,119

$1,340

4

Est. 3-Day Weekend Total
$170.60

Est. 5-Day Weekend Total
$234.00

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 24%

Est. Average PTA
$6,488



COMPARISONS:

OLD DOGS (Disney)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3

6/12/09

3,074

$23.37

$7,603

$65.54

Bolt

11/21/08

3,651

$26.22

$7,182

$114.05

Hairspray

7/20/07

3,121

$27.48

$8,804

$118.82

Wild Hogs

3/2/07

3287

$39.67

$12,078

$168.21

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

5/22/09

4,096

$54.17

$13,226

$177.05

Night at the Museum

12/22/06

3,685

$30.43

$8,259

$250.86

License to Wed

7/3/07

2,604

$10.42

$4,002

$43.79

RV

4/28/06

3,639

$16.41

$4,511

$71.72

Flubber

11/28/97

2,641

$27.15

$10,280

$92.97

Without a Paddle

8/20/04

2,730

$13.53

$4,956

$58.16

Austin Powers in Goldmember

7/26/02

3,613

$3.55

$73.07

$20,224

$213.08

Austin Powers II:The Spy Who Shagged Me

6/11/99

3,312

$2.52

$54.57

$16,582

$205.40

Yours, Mine and Ours

11/25/05

3,206

$6.86

$17.46

$5,446

$53.30

The Pacifier

3/4/05

3,131

$30.55

$9,758

$113.01

Are We There Yet?

1/21/05

2,709

$18.58

$6,857

$82.30

Cheaper By the Dozen

12/26/03

3,298

$8.18

$27.56

$8,356

$128.03

Daddy Day Care

5/9/03

3,370

$27.62

$8,197

$103.55

Big Daddy

6/25/99

3,027

$41.54

$13,723

$163.48



NINJA ASSASSIN (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

V for Vendetta

3/17/06

3,365

$25.65

$7,620

$70.51

Speed Racer

5/9/08

3,606

$18.56

$5,147

$43.93

Transporter 3

11/26/08

2,626

$6.17

$12.06

$4,594

$31.72

Hitman

11/21/07

2,458

$7.91

$13.18

$5,362

$39.69

Kill Bill Vol. 2

4/16/04

2,971

$25.10

$8,450

$66.21

Kill Bill Vol. 1

10/10/03

3,102

$22.09

$7,121

$69.82

Black Mask

5/14/99

979

$4.45

$4,545

$12.49



FANTASTIC MR. FOX (Fox Searchlight)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Darjeeling Limited

9/29/07

699

$1.76

$2,520

$11.90

The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou

12/10/04

1,105

$0.40

$4.55

$4,115

$24.01

The Royal Tenenbaums

1/4/02

751

$12.19

$8.51

$11,344

$52.35

Rushmore

2/19/99

764

$6.95

$2.80

$2.98

$3,665

Where the Wild Things Are

10/16/09

3,735

$32.70

$8,754

$74.62

Coraline

2/6/09

2,299

$16.84

$7,329

$75.29

The Corpse Bride

9/16/05

3,204

$0.51

$19.15

$5,975

$53.36

The Nightmare Before Christmas

10/22/93

1,654

$0.32

$6.24

$3,773

$50.00

James and the Giant Peach

4/12/96

2,262

$7.54

$3,333

$29.82

Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

10/7/05

3,645

$0.02

$16.03

$4,397

$56.07

Chicken Run

6/23/00

2,491

$0.10

$17.11

$6,869

$106.79

Eight Crazy Nights

11/29/02

2,503

4.884

$9.43

$3,769

$23.61


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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