Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for November 25 - 29, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 11.24.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	3-Day Weekend (in millions)	5-Day Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average (3-Day)	Week
1	1	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	$49.7	$67.8	-65%	4,024	$12,351	2
2	New	Old Dogs	$25.6	$34.5	N/A	3,425	$7,474	1
3	2	The Blind Side	$21.5	$28.3	-37%	3,140	$6,847	2
4	3	2012	$14.5	$20.6	-45%	3,444	$4,210	3
5	4	Disney's A Christmas Carol	$14.0	$18.5	14%	3,013	$4,647	4
6	5	Planet 51	$12.8	$17.3	5%	3,035	$4,217	2
7	New	Ninja Assassin	$11.6	$17.6	N/A	2,703	$4,292	1
8	6	Precious	$9.8	$13.8	-10%	663	$14,781	4
9	24	The Fantastic Mr. Fox	$9.6	$13.2	4673%	2,033	$4,722	3
10	7	Men Who Stare at Goats	$1.5	$2.4	-47%	1,119	$1,340	4
			Est. 3-Day Weekend Total $170.60	Est. 5-Day Weekend Total $234.00	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 24%		Est. Average PTA $6,488

COMPARISONS:

OLD DOGS (Disney)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3	6/12/09	3,074		$23.37	$7,603	$65.54
Bolt	11/21/08	3,651		$26.22	$7,182	$114.05
Hairspray	7/20/07	3,121		$27.48	$8,804	$118.82
Wild Hogs	3/2/07	3287		$39.67	$12,078	$168.21
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian	5/22/09	4,096		$54.17	$13,226	$177.05
Night at the Museum	12/22/06	3,685		$30.43	$8,259	$250.86
License to Wed	7/3/07	2,604		$10.42	$4,002	$43.79
RV	4/28/06	3,639		$16.41	$4,511	$71.72
Flubber	11/28/97	2,641		$27.15	$10,280	$92.97
Without a Paddle	8/20/04	2,730		$13.53	$4,956	$58.16
Austin Powers in Goldmember	7/26/02	3,613	$3.55	$73.07	$20,224	$213.08
Austin Powers II:The Spy Who Shagged Me	6/11/99	3,312	$2.52	$54.57	$16,582	$205.40
Yours, Mine and Ours	11/25/05	3,206	$6.86	$17.46	$5,446	$53.30
The Pacifier	3/4/05	3,131		$30.55	$9,758	$113.01
Are We There Yet?	1/21/05	2,709		$18.58	$6,857	$82.30
Cheaper By the Dozen	12/26/03	3,298	$8.18	$27.56	$8,356	$128.03
Daddy Day Care	5/9/03	3,370		$27.62	$8,197	$103.55
Big Daddy	6/25/99	3,027		$41.54	$13,723	$163.48

NINJA ASSASSIN (Warner Bros.)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
V for Vendetta	3/17/06	3,365		$25.65	$7,620	$70.51
Speed Racer	5/9/08	3,606		$18.56	$5,147	$43.93
Transporter 3	11/26/08	2,626	$6.17	$12.06	$4,594	$31.72
Hitman	11/21/07	2,458	$7.91	$13.18	$5,362	$39.69
Kill Bill Vol. 2	4/16/04	2,971		$25.10	$8,450	$66.21
Kill Bill Vol. 1	10/10/03	3,102		$22.09	$7,121	$69.82
Black Mask	5/14/99	979		$4.45	$4,545	$12.49

FANTASTIC MR. FOX (Fox Searchlight)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Darjeeling Limited	9/29/07	699		$1.76	$2,520	$11.90
The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou	12/10/04	1,105	$0.40	$4.55	$4,115	$24.01
The Royal Tenenbaums	1/4/02	751	$12.19	$8.51	$11,344	$52.35
Rushmore	2/19/99	764	$6.95	$2.80	$2.98	$3,665
Where the Wild Things Are	10/16/09	3,735		$32.70	$8,754	$74.62
Coraline	2/6/09	2,299		$16.84	$7,329	$75.29
The Corpse Bride	9/16/05	3,204	$0.51	$19.15	$5,975	$53.36
The Nightmare Before Christmas	10/22/93	1,654	$0.32	$6.24	$3,773	$50.00
James and the Giant Peach	4/12/96	2,262		$7.54	$3,333	$29.82
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit	10/7/05	3,645	$0.02	$16.03	$4,397	$56.07
Chicken Run	6/23/00	2,491	$0.10	$17.11	$6,869	$106.79
Eight Crazy Nights	11/29/02	2,503	4.884	$9.43	$3,769	$23.61