Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for November 20 - 22, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

The Twilight Saga: New Moon

$104.2

N/A

4,050

$25,728

1

2

1

2012

$27.2

-58%

3,430

$7,930

2

3

2

Disney's A Christmas Carol

$14.5

-35%

3,700

$3,919

3

4

New

The Blind Side

$13.6

N/A

3,130

$4,345

1

5

New

Planet 51

$10.8

N/A

2,740

$3,942

1

6

3

Precious

$10.0

70%

640

$15,625

3

7

4

Men Who Stare at Goats

$3.0

-45%

2,000

$1,500

3

8

7

Couples Retreat

$2.5

-40%

2,100

$1,190

7

9

5

Michael Jackson's This Is It

$2.3

-55%

2,500

$920

4

10

8

Paranormal Activity

$2.1

-47%

2,400

$917

6

Est. Weekend Total
$190.20

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 33%

Est. Average PTA
$6,597



COMPARISONS:

THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON (Summit)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Twilight

11/21/08

3,419

$69.64

$20,368

$191.41

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

11/18/05

3,858

$102.69

$26,616

$289.99

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets

11/15/02

3,682

$88.36

$23,997

$261.99

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone

11/16/01

3,672

$90.29

$24,590

$317.57

Sex and the City

5/30/08

3,285

$56.85

$17,305

$152.65

The Golden Compass

12/7/07

3,528

$25.78

$7,308

$69.25



THE BLIND SIDE (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Proposal

6/19/09

3,056

$33.63

$11,004

$159.17

Premonition

3/16/07

2,831

$17.56

$6,202

$47.84

The Lake House

6/16/06

2,645

$13.62

$5,148

$52.33

Crash

5/6/05

1,864

$9.11

$4,886

$54.56

A Time to Kill

17/26/96

2,123

$4.81

$14.82

$6,981

$108.77

The Express

10/10/08

2,808

$4.56

$1,625

$9.59

Any Given Sunday

12/24/99

2,505

$7.05

$13.58

$5,421

$75.53

We Are Marshall

12/22/06

2,606

$6.11

$2,346

$43.55

Invincible

8/25/06

2,917

$17.03

$5,839

$57.81

Friday Night Lights

10/8/04

2,667

$20.27

$7,600

$61.19

Radio

10/25/03

3,074

$13.30

$4,326

$52.28

Remember the Titans

9/29/00

1,865

$20.91

$11,212

$115.60

The Alamo

4/9/04

2,609

$9.12

$3,497

$22.41

The Rookie

3/29/02

2,511

$16.02

$6,381

$75.60



PLANET 51 (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

9/18/09

3119

$30.30

$8,716

$121.66

Surf's Up

6/8/07

2,528

$17.64

$5,000

$58.87

Open Season

9/29/06

3,833

$23.62

$6,163

$84.30

Monster House

7/21/06

3,553

$22.22

$6,253

$73.66

Battle for Terra

5/1/09

1,160

$1.08

$933

$1.65

Delgo

12/12/08

2,160

$0.51

$237

$0.92

Space Chimps

7/18/08

2,511

$7.18

$2,860

$30.11

Fly Me to the Moon

8/15/08

452

$1.90

$4,205

$12.34


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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