Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for November 13 - 15, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 11.12.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	2012	$54.2	N/A	3,404	$15,922	1
2	1	Disney's A Christmas Carol	$18.6	-38%	3,683	$5,050	2
3	2	Michael Jackson's This Is It	$7.6	-43%	3,037	$2,502	3
4	3	Men Who Stare at Goats	$7.0	-45%	2,453	$2,854	2
5	4	The Fourth Kind	$6.0	-51%	2,530	$2,372	2
6	13	Precious	$5.5	+227%	174	$31,609	6
7	5	Paranormal Activity	$4.3	-48%	2,200	$1,955	5
8	7	Couples Retreat	$3.8	-38%	2,450	$1,551	6
9	6	The Box	$3.6	-53%	2,635	$1,366	2
10	8	Law Abiding Citizen	$3.5	-42%	2,071	$1,690	5
11	New	Pirate Radio	$3.4	N/A	882	$3,855	1
			Est. Weekend Total $117.50	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 45%		Est. Average PTA $6,430

COMPARISONS:

2012 (Sony)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
10,000 B.C.	3/7/08	3,410		$35.87	$10,518	$94.78
The Day After Tomorrow	5/28/04	3,425		$68.74	$20,071	$186.58
Godzilla	5/22/98	3,310	$18.53	$44.74	$13,517	$136.31
Independence Day	7/5/96	2,882	$11.12	$50.23	$17,429	$306.17
Armageddon	7/3/98	3,127	$18.10	$36.09	$11,541	$201.58
Deep Impact	5/8/98	3,156		$41.15	$13,039	$140.46
The Martian Child	11/2/07	2,020		$3.38	$1,672	$7.50
1408	6/22/07	$2,678		$20.62	$7,699	$71.98
Runaway Jury	10/17/03	2,815		$11.84	$4,205	$49.36
Identity	4/25/03	2,733		$16.23	$5,937	$51.48
Poseidon	5/12/06	3,555		$22.16	$6,232	$60.66
The Day the Earth Stood Still	12/12/08	3,560		$30.48	$8,562	$79.31

PIRATE RADIO (Focus Features)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Love Actually	11/7/03	576		$6.89	$11,955	$59.08
Notting Hill	5/28/99	2,745		$22.13	$8,062	$116.09
Four Weddings and a Funeral	4/15/94	721	$9.88	$4.16	$5,770	$52.72
Hot Fuzz	4/20/07	825		$5.85	$7,089	$23.62
Shaun of the Dead	9/24/04	607		$3.33	$5,487	$13.46
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason	11/12/04	530		$8.68	$16,385	$40.20
Bridget Jones's Diary	4/13/01	1,611		$10.73	$6,662	$71.50
Taking Woodstock	8/26/09	1,393		$3.46	$2,482	$7.44
Talk to Me	7/13/07	115	$1.08	$.80	$6,971	$4.53