Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for May 22-24, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for May 22- 25, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 5.21.09)

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TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Terminator Salvation	$71.6	N/A	3,480	$20,575	1
2	New	Night at the Museum	$68.6	N/A	4,096	$16,748	1
3	2	Star Trek	$32.7	-24%	4,053	$8,068	3
4	1	Angels and Demons	$27.8	-40%	3,530	$7,882	2
5	New	Dance Flick	$10.7	N/A	2,350	$4,367	1
6	3	X-Men Origins: Wolverine	$9.0	-39%	3,183	$2,828	4
7	4	Ghosts of Girlfriends Past	$5.0	-25%	2,255	$2,217	4
8	5	Obsessed	$3.1	-33%	2,300	$1,934	5
9	7	Monsters vs. Aliens	$2.4	-23%	1,700	$1,674	9
10	6	17 Again	$2.1	-38%	2,200	$1,897	6
			Est. Weekend Total $233.00	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 32%		Est. Average PTA $6,810

COMPARISONS:

TERMINATOR SALVATION (Warner Bros.)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines	7/4/03	3,504	$28.35	$44.04	$12,569	$150.35
Terminator 2	7/5/91	2,274	$20.54	$40.67	$13,971	$204.84
Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle	6/27/03	3,459		$37.63	$10,880	$100.69
Charlie's Angels	11/3/00	3,037		$40.13	$13,214	$125.31
The Dark Knight	7/18/08	4,366		$158.41	$36,283	$533.35
Batman Begins	6/17/05	3,858	$24.15	$48.75	$12,635	$205.09
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	5/25/07	4,362	$13.24	$139.80	$32,050	$309.40
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	5/22/08	4,260	$25.04	$126.94	$29,792	$317.00
X-Men: The Last Stand	5/26/06	3,690		$122.86	$33,295	$234.36
The Day After Tomorrow	5/28/04	3,425		$85.81	$25,053	$186.58
Bruce Almighty	5/23/03	3,483		$85.73	$24,614	$242.60
The Lost World	5/23/97	3,281	$2.57	$84.70	$27,480	$229.09
Pearl Harbor	5/25/01	3,214		$75.18	$23,390	$198.54
Live Free or Die Hard	6/29/07	3,408	$15.03	$33.37	$9,792	$134.53

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: BATTLE FOR THE SMITHSONIAN (20^th Century Fox)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Night at the Museum	12/22/06	3,685		$30.43	$8,259	$250.86
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa	11/7/08	4,056		$63.10	$15,559	$180.01
Madagascar	5/27/05	4,131		$61.01	$14,769	$193.14
Tropic Thunder	8/13/08	3,319	$11.03	$25.81	$7,777	$110.46
Meet the Fockers	12/24/04	3,518	$24.40	$46.12	$13,110	$275.94
Meet the Parents	10/6/00	2,614		$28.62	$10,949	$166.23
Enchanted	11/21/07	3,730	14.619	$34.44	$9,233	$127.71
Forgetting Sarah Marshall	4/18/08	2,798		$17.73	$6,335	$63.17
Superbad	8/17/07	2,948		$33.05	$11,212	$121.46
Evan Almighty	6/22/07	2,604		$31.19	$8,655	$100.29
Bruce Almighty	5/23/03	3,483		$85.73	$24,614	$242.60

DANCE FLICK (Paramount/MTV Films)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Little Man	7/14/06	2,533		$21.61	$8,533	$58.64
White Chicks	6/25/04	2,726	$7.50	$19.68	$7,218	$69.15
Scary Movie 2	7/6/01	3,220	$13.51	$20.50	$6,367	$71.28
Scary Movie	7/7/00	2,912		$42.35	$14,543	$157.00
Disaster Movie	8/29/08	2,642		$5.84	$2,209	$14.19
Superhero Movie	3/28/08	2,960		$9.51	$3,213	$25.87
Date Movie	2/17/06	2,896		$19.08	$6,587	$48.55
Epic Movie	1/26/07	2,801		$18.61	$6,645	$39.74
Bruce Almighty	5/23/03	3,483		$85.73	$24,614	$242.60
Soul Plane	5/28/04	1,566		$7.01	$4,476	$13.92
Step Up 2 The Street	2/14/08	2,470		$18.91	$7,655	$58.02
Stomp the Yard	1/12/07	2051		$21.83	$10,645	$61.36
Step Up	8/11/06	2,467		$20.66	$8,374	$65.33
Take the Lead	4/7/06	3,009		$12.05	$4,005	$34.74
You Got Served	1/30/04	1,933		$16.12	$8,341	$40.07
Honey	12/5/03	1,942		$12.86	$6,620	$30.00
Save the Last Dance	1/12/01	2,230		$23.44	$10,511	$90.17