Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for May 22- 25, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 5.21.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Terminator Salvation

$71.6

N/A

3,480

$20,575

1

2

New

Night at the Museum

$68.6

N/A

4,096

$16,748

1

3

2

Star Trek

$32.7

-24%

4,053

$8,068

3

4

1

Angels and Demons

$27.8

-40%

3,530

$7,882

2

5

New

Dance Flick

$10.7

N/A

2,350

$4,367

1

6

3

X-Men Origins: Wolverine

$9.0

-39%

3,183

$2,828

4

7

4

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past

$5.0

-25%

2,255

$2,217

4

8

5

Obsessed

$3.1

-33%

2,300

$1,934

5

9

7

Monsters vs. Aliens

$2.4

-23%

1,700

$1,674

9

10

6

17 Again

$2.1

-38%

2,200

$1,897

6

Est. Weekend Total
$233.00

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 32%

Est. Average PTA
$6,810



COMPARISONS:

TERMINATOR SALVATION (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines

7/4/03

3,504

$28.35

$44.04

$12,569

$150.35

Terminator 2

7/5/91

2,274

$20.54

$40.67

$13,971

$204.84

Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle

6/27/03

3,459

$37.63

$10,880

$100.69

Charlie's Angels

11/3/00

3,037

$40.13

$13,214

$125.31

The Dark Knight

7/18/08

4,366

$158.41

$36,283

$533.35

Batman Begins

6/17/05

3,858

$24.15

$48.75

$12,635

$205.09

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

5/25/07

4,362

$13.24

$139.80

$32,050

$309.40

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

5/22/08

4,260

$25.04

$126.94

$29,792

$317.00

X-Men: The Last Stand

5/26/06

3,690

$122.86

$33,295

$234.36

The Day After Tomorrow

5/28/04

3,425

$85.81

$25,053

$186.58

Bruce Almighty

5/23/03

3,483

$85.73

$24,614

$242.60

The Lost World

5/23/97

3,281

$2.57

$84.70

$27,480

$229.09

Pearl Harbor

5/25/01

3,214

$75.18

$23,390

$198.54

Live Free or Die Hard

6/29/07

3,408

$15.03

$33.37

$9,792

$134.53



NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: BATTLE FOR THE SMITHSONIAN (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Night at the Museum

12/22/06

3,685

$30.43

$8,259

$250.86

Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa

11/7/08

4,056

$63.10

$15,559

$180.01

Madagascar

5/27/05

4,131

$61.01

$14,769

$193.14

Tropic Thunder

8/13/08

3,319

$11.03

$25.81

$7,777

$110.46

Meet the Fockers

12/24/04

3,518

$24.40

$46.12

$13,110

$275.94

Meet the Parents

10/6/00

2,614

$28.62

$10,949

$166.23

Enchanted

11/21/07

3,730

14.619

$34.44

$9,233

$127.71

Forgetting Sarah Marshall

4/18/08

2,798

$17.73

$6,335

$63.17

Superbad

8/17/07

2,948

$33.05

$11,212

$121.46

Evan Almighty

6/22/07

2,604

$31.19

$8,655

$100.29

Bruce Almighty

5/23/03

3,483

$85.73

$24,614

$242.60



DANCE FLICK (Paramount/MTV Films)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Little Man

7/14/06

2,533

$21.61

$8,533

$58.64

White Chicks

6/25/04

2,726

$7.50

$19.68

$7,218

$69.15

Scary Movie 2

7/6/01

3,220

$13.51

$20.50

$6,367

$71.28

Scary Movie

7/7/00

2,912

$42.35

$14,543

$157.00

Disaster Movie

8/29/08

2,642

$5.84

$2,209

$14.19

Superhero Movie

3/28/08

2,960

$9.51

$3,213

$25.87

Date Movie

2/17/06

2,896

$19.08

$6,587

$48.55

Epic Movie

1/26/07

2,801

$18.61

$6,645

$39.74

Bruce Almighty

5/23/03

3,483

$85.73

$24,614

$242.60

Soul Plane

5/28/04

1,566

$7.01

$4,476

$13.92

Step Up 2 The Street

2/14/08

2,470

$18.91

$7,655

$58.02

Stomp the Yard

1/12/07

2051

$21.83

$10,645

$61.36

Step Up

8/11/06

2,467

$20.66

$8,374

$65.33

Take the Lead

4/7/06

3,009

$12.05

$4,005

$34.74

You Got Served

1/30/04

1,933

$16.12

$8,341

$40.07

Honey

12/5/03

1,942

$12.86

$6,620

$30.00

Save the Last Dance

1/12/01

2,230

$23.44

$10,511

$90.17


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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