Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for March 27 - 29, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 3.26.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Monsters vs. Aliens

$54.6

N/A

4,104

$13,367

1

2

New

The Haunting in Connecticut

$13.1

N/A

2,732

$4,632

1

3

1

Knowing

$11.5

-54%

3,337

$3,451

2

4

2

I Love You, Man

$11.2

-36%

2,730

$4,103

2

5

3

Duplicity

$7.7

-45%

2,579

$2,984

2

6

4

Race to Witch Mountain

$6.4

-50%

3,268

$2,065

3

7

New

12 Rounds

$5.7

N/A

2,331

$2,478

1

8

5

Watchmen

$3.0

-53%

2,010

$1,049

4

9

6

Last House on the Left

$2.8

-52%

2,405

$1,164

3

10

7

Taken

$2.7

-35%

2,350

$1,149

9

Est. Weekend Total
$118.70

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 47%

Est. Average PTA
$3,715



COMPARISONS:

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Kung Fu Panda

6/6/08

4,114

$60.24

$14,642

$215.44

Shrek

5/18/01

3,587

$0.04

$42.35

$11,805

$267.65

Madagascar

5/27/05

4,131

$47.22

$11,432

$193.14

Shark Tale

10/1/04

4,016

$47.60

$11,854

$160.76

Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who

3/14/08

3,954

$45.01

$11,384

$154.53

Surf's Up

6/8/07

3,528

$17.64

$5,000.00

$58.87

Robots

3/11/05

3,776

$36.05

$9,546

$128.19

Ice Age: the Meltdown

3/31/06

3,964

$68.03

$17,163

$195.33

Ice Age

3/15/02

3,316

$46.30

$13,966

$176.39

Bolt

11/21/08

3,651

$26.22

$7,182

$114.05

The Incredibles

11/5/04

3,933

$70.47

$17,917

$261.44



THE HAUNTING IN CONNECTICUT (Lionsgate)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Unborn

1/9/09

2,357

$19.81

$8,405

$42.67

The Eye

2/1/08

2,436

$12.43

$5,101

$31.42

The Messengers

2/2/07

2,528

$14.70

$5,820

$35.37

An American Haunting

5/5/06

1,680

$5.78

$3,443

$16.30

The Amityville Horror

4/15/05

3,323

$23.51

$7,074

$64.26

White Noise

1/7/05

2,261

$24.11

$10,665

$55.87

The Others

8/10/01

1,678

$14.09

$8,397

$96.08

The Haunting

7/23/99

2,808

$33.44

$11,909

$91.19

The Number 23

2/23/07

2,759

$14.60

$5,293

$35.23

The Astronaut Farmer

2/23/07

2,155

$4.45

$2,067

$11.00

Firewall

2/10/06

2,840

$13.64

$4,801

$48.75

Sideways

10/22/04

497

$7.03

$2.91

$5,861

$71.50



12 ROUNDS (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Condemned

4/27/07

2,310

$3.81

$1,648

$7.37

The Marine

10/13/06

2,545

$7.14

$2,805

$18.84

See No Evil

5/19/06

1,257

$4.58

$3,645

$15.03

Walking Tall

4/2/04

2,836

$15.50

$5,466

$45.86

The Covenant

9/8/06

2,681

$8.85

$3,302

$23.29

Mindhunters

5/13/05

1,040

$1.91

$1,838

$4.48

Exorcist: The Beginning

8/20/04

2,803

$18.05

$6,441

$41.81

Driven

4/27/01

2,905

$12.17

$4,190

$32.62

Deep Blue Sea

7/30/99

2,854

$6.06

$19.11

$6,696

$73.65

Cutthroat Island

12/22/95

1,619

$2.37

$1,464

$9.91


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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