Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for March 20-22, 2009

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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for March 20 - 22, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 3.19.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Knowing	$21.5	N/A	3,332	$6,453	1
2	New	I Love You, Man	$19.6	N/A	2,711	$7,230	1
3	New	Duplicity	$14.5	N/A	2,575	$5,631	1
4	1	Race to Witch Mountain	$13.5	-45%	3,187	$4,236	2
5	2	Watchmen	$8.5	-52%	3,510	$2,422	3
6	3	Last House on the Left	$6.5	-54%	2,403	$2,705	2
7	4	Taken	$5.3	-20%	2,661	$1,992	8
8	6	Slumdog Millionaire	$3.3	-34%	2,067	$1,597	12
9	5	Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail	$3.0	-42%	1,835	$1,635	5
10	7	Paul Blart: Mall Cop	$2.0	-36%	17,62	$1,135	10
			Est. Weekend Total $97.70	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -40%		Est. Average PTA $3,503

COMPARISONS:

KNOWING (Summit Entertainment)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Bangkok Dangerous	9/5/08	2,650		$7.78	$2,937	$15.28
National Treasure: The Book of Secrets	12/21/07	3,832		$44.78	$11,687	$219.44
Next	4/27/07	2,725		$7.13	$2,618	$18.21
Ghost Rider	2/16/07	3,619		$45.39	$12,542	$115.80
World Trade Center	8/11/06	2,957		$18.73	$6,334	$70.28
National Treasure	11/19/04	3,017		$35.14	$11,648	$173.05
Windtalkers	6/14/02	2,898		$14.52	$5,010	$40.91
I, Robot	7/16/04	3,420		$52.18	$15,257	$143.01
Dark City	2/27/98	1,754		$5.58	$3,181	$14.38
The Crow	5/13/94	1,573		$11.85	$7,533	$50.64
The Day the Earth Stood Still	12/12/08	3,560		$30.48	$8,562	$79.31
The X-Files: I Want to Believe	7/25/08	3,185		$10.02	$3,147	$20.98
The Happening	6/13/08	2,986		$30.52	$10,220	$64.51
I Am Legend	12/14/07	3,606		$77.21	$21,412	$256.39
The Forgotten	9/24/04	3,104		$21.02	$6,773	$66.64

I LOVE YOU, MAN (DreamWorks/Paramount)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Role Models	11/7/08	2,792		$19.17	$6,865	$67.30
Forgetting Sarah Marshall	4/18/08	2,798		$17.73	$6,335	$63.17
Over Her Dead Body	2/1/08	1,977.00		$4.03	$2,036	$7.57
Knocked Up	6/1/07	2,871		$30.69	$10,690	$146.28
The 40-Year-Old Virgin	8/19/05	2,845		$21.42	$7,530	$109.24
Along Came Polly	1/16/04	2,984		$27.21	$9,290	$87.86
Drillbit Taylor	3/21/08	3056		$10.31	$3,374	$32.86
The Heartbreak Kid	10/5/07	3,229		$14.02	$4,343	$36.79
Hot Rod	8/3/07	2,607		$5.31	$2,037	$13.98

DUPLICITY (Universal)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Michael Clayton	10/5/07	2,511	$1.08	$10.37	$4,131	$49.02
Closer	12/3/04	476		$7.71	$16,193	$33.99
Charlie Wilson's War	12/21/07	2,575		$9.66	$3,750	$66.64
Mona Lisa Smile	12/19/03	2,677		$11.53	$4,306	$62.96
I Love Trouble	7/1/94	1,711		$7.83	$4,576	$30.69
Conspiracy Theory	8/8/97	2,806		$19.31	$6,882	$76.12
The International	2/13/09	2,364		$9.33	$3,947	$23.74
Shoot 'Em Up	9/7/07	2,108		$5.72	$2,712	$12.80
Children of Men	12/25/06	1209	1.61	$10.20	$8,435	$35.33
Inside Man	3/24/06	2818		$28.95	$10,275	$88.63
Derailed	11/11/05	2,443		$12.21	$4,999	$36.02
Sin City	4/1/05	3,230		$29.12	$9,016	$74.10
Laws of Attraction	4/30/04	2,449		$6.73	$2,748	$17.85
Intolerable Cruelty	10/10/03	2,564		$12.53	$4,885	$35.10