Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for March 20 - 22, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 3.19.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Knowing

$21.5

N/A

3,332

$6,453

1

2

New

I Love You, Man

$19.6

N/A

2,711

$7,230

1

3

New

Duplicity

$14.5

N/A

2,575

$5,631

1

4

1

Race to Witch Mountain

$13.5

-45%

3,187

$4,236

2

5

2

Watchmen

$8.5

-52%

3,510

$2,422

3

6

3

Last House on the Left

$6.5

-54%

2,403

$2,705

2

7

4

Taken

$5.3

-20%

2,661

$1,992

8

8

6

Slumdog Millionaire

$3.3

-34%

2,067

$1,597

12

9

5

Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail

$3.0

-42%

1,835

$1,635

5

10

7

Paul Blart: Mall Cop

$2.0

-36%

17,62

$1,135

10

Est. Weekend Total
$97.70

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
-40%

Est. Average PTA
$3,503



COMPARISONS:

KNOWING (Summit Entertainment)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Bangkok Dangerous

9/5/08

2,650

$7.78

$2,937

$15.28

National Treasure: The Book of Secrets

12/21/07

3,832

$44.78

$11,687

$219.44

Next

4/27/07

2,725

$7.13

$2,618

$18.21

Ghost Rider

2/16/07

3,619

$45.39

$12,542

$115.80

World Trade Center

8/11/06

2,957

$18.73

$6,334

$70.28

National Treasure

11/19/04

3,017

$35.14

$11,648

$173.05

Windtalkers

6/14/02

2,898

$14.52

$5,010

$40.91

I, Robot

7/16/04

3,420

$52.18

$15,257

$143.01

Dark City

2/27/98

1,754

$5.58

$3,181

$14.38

The Crow

5/13/94

1,573

$11.85

$7,533

$50.64

The Day the Earth Stood Still

12/12/08

3,560

$30.48

$8,562

$79.31

The X-Files: I Want to Believe

7/25/08

3,185

$10.02

$3,147

$20.98

The Happening

6/13/08

2,986

$30.52

$10,220

$64.51

I Am Legend

12/14/07

3,606

$77.21

$21,412

$256.39

The Forgotten

9/24/04

3,104

$21.02

$6,773

$66.64



I LOVE YOU, MAN (DreamWorks/Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Role Models

11/7/08

2,792

$19.17

$6,865

$67.30

Forgetting Sarah Marshall

4/18/08

2,798

$17.73

$6,335

$63.17

Over Her Dead Body

2/1/08

1,977.00

$4.03

$2,036

$7.57

Knocked Up

6/1/07

2,871

$30.69

$10,690

$146.28

The 40-Year-Old Virgin

8/19/05

2,845

$21.42

$7,530

$109.24

Along Came Polly

1/16/04

2,984

$27.21

$9,290

$87.86

Drillbit Taylor

3/21/08

3056

$10.31

$3,374

$32.86

The Heartbreak Kid

10/5/07

3,229

$14.02

$4,343

$36.79

Hot Rod

8/3/07

2,607

$5.31

$2,037

$13.98



DUPLICITY (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Michael Clayton

10/5/07

2,511

$1.08

$10.37

$4,131

$49.02

Closer

12/3/04

476

$7.71

$16,193

$33.99

Charlie Wilson's War

12/21/07

2,575

$9.66

$3,750

$66.64

Mona Lisa Smile

12/19/03

2,677

$11.53

$4,306

$62.96

I Love Trouble

7/1/94

1,711

$7.83

$4,576

$30.69

Conspiracy Theory

8/8/97

2,806

$19.31

$6,882

$76.12

The International

2/13/09

2,364

$9.33

$3,947

$23.74

Shoot 'Em Up

9/7/07

2,108

$5.72

$2,712

$12.80

Children of Men

12/25/06

1209

1.61

$10.20

$8,435

$35.33

Inside Man

3/24/06

2818

$28.95

$10,275

$88.63

Derailed

11/11/05

2,443

$12.21

$4,999

$36.02

Sin City

4/1/05

3,230

$29.12

$9,016

$74.10

Laws of Attraction

4/30/04

2,449

$6.73

$2,748

$17.85

Intolerable Cruelty

10/10/03

2,564

$12.53

$4,885

$35.10


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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