Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for March 20-22, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for March 20 - 22, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 3.19.09)

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TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Knowing	$21.5	N/A	3,332	$6,453	1
2	New	I Love You, Man	$19.6	N/A	2,711	$7,230	1
3	New	Duplicity	$14.5	N/A	2,575	$5,631	1
4	1	Race to Witch Mountain	$13.5	-45%	3,187	$4,236	2
5	2	Watchmen	$8.5	-52%	3,510	$2,422	3
6	3	Last House on the Left	$6.5	-54%	2,403	$2,705	2
7	4	Taken	$5.3	-20%	2,661	$1,992	8
8	6	Slumdog Millionaire	$3.3	-34%	2,067	$1,597	12
9	5	Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail	$3.0	-42%	1,835	$1,635	5
10	7	Paul Blart: Mall Cop	$2.0	-36%	17,62	$1,135	10
			Est. Weekend Total $97.70	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -40%		Est. Average PTA $3,503

COMPARISONS:

KNOWING (Summit Entertainment)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Bangkok Dangerous	9/5/08	2,650		$7.78	$2,937	$15.28
National Treasure: The Book of Secrets	12/21/07	3,832		$44.78	$11,687	$219.44
Next	4/27/07	2,725		$7.13	$2,618	$18.21
Ghost Rider	2/16/07	3,619		$45.39	$12,542	$115.80
World Trade Center	8/11/06	2,957		$18.73	$6,334	$70.28
National Treasure	11/19/04	3,017		$35.14	$11,648	$173.05
Windtalkers	6/14/02	2,898		$14.52	$5,010	$40.91
I, Robot	7/16/04	3,420		$52.18	$15,257	$143.01
Dark City	2/27/98	1,754		$5.58	$3,181	$14.38
The Crow	5/13/94	1,573		$11.85	$7,533	$50.64
The Day the Earth Stood Still	12/12/08	3,560		$30.48	$8,562	$79.31
The X-Files: I Want to Believe	7/25/08	3,185		$10.02	$3,147	$20.98
The Happening	6/13/08	2,986		$30.52	$10,220	$64.51
I Am Legend	12/14/07	3,606		$77.21	$21,412	$256.39
The Forgotten	9/24/04	3,104		$21.02	$6,773	$66.64

I LOVE YOU, MAN (DreamWorks/Paramount)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Role Models	11/7/08	2,792		$19.17	$6,865	$67.30
Forgetting Sarah Marshall	4/18/08	2,798		$17.73	$6,335	$63.17
Over Her Dead Body	2/1/08	1,977.00		$4.03	$2,036	$7.57
Knocked Up	6/1/07	2,871		$30.69	$10,690	$146.28
The 40-Year-Old Virgin	8/19/05	2,845		$21.42	$7,530	$109.24
Along Came Polly	1/16/04	2,984		$27.21	$9,290	$87.86
Drillbit Taylor	3/21/08	3056		$10.31	$3,374	$32.86
The Heartbreak Kid	10/5/07	3,229		$14.02	$4,343	$36.79
Hot Rod	8/3/07	2,607		$5.31	$2,037	$13.98

DUPLICITY (Universal)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Michael Clayton	10/5/07	2,511	$1.08	$10.37	$4,131	$49.02
Closer	12/3/04	476		$7.71	$16,193	$33.99
Charlie Wilson's War	12/21/07	2,575		$9.66	$3,750	$66.64
Mona Lisa Smile	12/19/03	2,677		$11.53	$4,306	$62.96
I Love Trouble	7/1/94	1,711		$7.83	$4,576	$30.69
Conspiracy Theory	8/8/97	2,806		$19.31	$6,882	$76.12
The International	2/13/09	2,364		$9.33	$3,947	$23.74
Shoot 'Em Up	9/7/07	2,108		$5.72	$2,712	$12.80
Children of Men	12/25/06	1209	1.61	$10.20	$8,435	$35.33
Inside Man	3/24/06	2818		$28.95	$10,275	$88.63
Derailed	11/11/05	2,443		$12.21	$4,999	$36.02
Sin City	4/1/05	3,230		$29.12	$9,016	$74.10
Laws of Attraction	4/30/04	2,449		$6.73	$2,748	$17.85
Intolerable Cruelty	10/10/03	2,564		$12.53	$4,885	$35.10